7/23-24 (SAR): CCA Oaks (G1); Caress

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Elates coming out party. Exciting times.

That sure was a cute little stakes she won at Delaware over 3 other horses.

Two of them came back to win. Analyze, who ran last, came back to win a first-condition allowance in desperate fashion at 3-5. Teresa Z shipped over to face the monsters that line up for non-winners once allowances at Penn National and romped.

Of course, the only horse from the Light Hearted (apropos name) to actually face stakes horses next out, Modacious, came back to run...you guessed it...dead last in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks.

Ironically enough, the winner of that race, It Tiz Well--an understudy of Unique Bella--defeated elate by 5 lengths in the Honey Bee at Oaklawn. It Tiz Well beat Modacious by over 8 lengths. On strict form, that should have been good enough for Elate to finish second-to-last in the Delware Oaks.

It's not all bad news though, Elate couldn't possibly run any worse in this Grade 1 than she did in her only other Grade 1 start (DNF, vanned off).

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That sure was a cute little stakes she won at Delaware over 3 other horses.

Two of them came back to win. Analyze, who ran last, came back to win a first-condition allowance in desperate fashion at 3-5. Teresa Z shipped over to face the monsters that line up for non-winners once allowances at Penn National and romped.

Of course, the only horse from the Light Hearted (apropos name) to actually face stakes horses next out, Modacious, came back to run...you guessed it...dead last in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks.

Ironically enough, the winner of that race, It Tiz Well--an understudy of Unique Bella--defeated elate by 5 lengths in the Honey Bee at Oaklawn. It Tiz Well beat Modacious by over 8 lengths. On strict form, that should have been good enough for Elate to finish second-to-last in the Delware Oaks.

It's not all bad news though, Elate couldn't possibly run any worse in this Grade 1 than she did in her only other Grade 1 start (DNF, vanned off).

You are 2 sharp to totally disregard her like this.

[RHT2004]

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak. I actually think slow paces dont help against horses with great turns of foot, of course I have been saying that to you on message boards for the better part of 15 years so its not a novel opinion.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak.

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

[RHT2004]

Rollo 10pt appreciate the healthy discussion.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

Im with you on AT. You know i love Bob and Mike. I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

as usual you were right, Abel Tasman is just a tricky horse...she can move whenever she wants.

That was interesting ride for sure, seemed like he wanted to make sure he was near the lead but to move like that in th middle, and still hold on is usually the sign of a pretty dang good horses.

Salty had a huge trip, but think she is the lesser talented between these two.