Wrong Payoff at Gulfstream?

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I have no idea how they could make a mistake on a place price, but I did the math and I believe the payoff was wrong. In the 6th race at Gulfstream, Sadie Be Good only payed $3.00 to place. There was $52,325 in the place pool. She had $17,393 bet on her to place. The horse that finished 2nd (Loxley) had $5,015 bet on her to place. So if you subtract $17,393 and $5,015 from $52,325 and then you subtract $8,372 (16% take) from the place pool, you are left with $21,545. You need to cut that in half which leaves you with $10,772 for each horse.

Sadie Be Good had $17,393 bet on her to place. There should have been $10,772 left to pay those tickets off. So she should have paid $3.40 to place, not $3.00.

After a race, before the results are official, I do these calculations every day. My math is practically always right. I can't figure out how Sadie Be Good only paid $3.00 to place. Can anyone make sense of this?

Firstly, the WPS takeout at Gulfstream is 17%, not 16%. But, using your numbers, when you divide 10,772 by 17,393, the answer I get is .6193..., and when you use a 17% take then the answer is lowered to .6043..., both of which are well under the .7 which would be needed for the payoff to be $3.40. If you do these calculations often, as I do, you'll know that due to net pool pricing, anytime the number lands near the breakage point, the payoff will always be short when you bet on the more well-supported winner. So while under the old calculation the payoff should have been $3.20, (albeit never $3.40) a payoff of $3.00 is not surprising at all.