Is my math right? I'm looking at the map and the electoral count. According to Silver's map, Hillary is ahead 299.8 to 237. But Silver is counting Florida for Hillary. Most polls now show Trump ahead in Florida. Florida is worth 29 electoral votes. So if Trump wins Florida, then it would Hillary 271, Trump 266. Silver has Hillary winning North Carolina. I have seen polls showing Trump ahead in NC. NC is worth 15 electoral votes. So if Trump wins NC, he wins 281- 256. I had thought he needed to win either Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. But assuming he wins Florida (and assuming everything else on Silver's map is correct), then all he needs to do is win NC to win the election. Is that correct?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/
Edit: I think I am misreading something on his map and forecast. If you check his polls plus forecast (rather than just his polls without forecast), he actually has Trump winning both Florida and NC. Yet it shows the electoral count as Hillary at 296 and Trump at 240.9. So I believe Trump does in fact need to win another big state such as either Pennsylvania or Michigan, or win another few smaller ones that he is trailing in such as Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
11-02-2016, 08:52 AM
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