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#1
02-25-2016, 10:03 PM
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VALLEY GIRL
 filly, Mastercraftsman-Leigh Valley Trainers: Donna Logan (Habibi 2013) & Chris Gibbs Jockey: Danielle Johnson (no Derby wins) 6 starts 3 wins 0 seconds 1 third NZ$236,125 1st Herbie Dyke Stakes (G1 against older horses) 3rd Eight Carat Classic 4th Trevor Eagle Memorial 5th Royal Stakes My opinion is that this filly's win in the Herbie Dyke was the best performance all season by any of the horses in this Derby field. She was amazing that day. Her trainers have reported that she's made excellent progress since that win, and they would know - in the last three years the Logan team has gone to the Derby with Habibi (1st 2013), Rising Romance (2nd 2014) and Volkstok'n'barrell (2nd 2015). We know this horse has the talent, and I believe she has the stamina as well. In an even group, Valley Girl is my top choice for this year's Derby.  Odds: 8 Last edited by _ed_ : 02-25-2016 at 10:34 PM. 
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#2
02-25-2016, 10:21 PM
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BRIGHTON
 colt, Buffalo Man-Gore Bay Trainer: Nigel Tiley (Ring The Bell 1980 as jockey, Look Who's Talking 1994 as trainer) Jockey: Lee Tiley 11 starts 2 wins 1 second 2 thirds NZ$93,900 1st Champagne Stakes 2nd Avondale Guineas 3rd John Grigg Stakes 4th New Zealand 2000 Guineas 5th Foal Stakes 6th Karaka Mile 7th Bonecrusher Stakes 8th Great Northern Guineas 11th Wanganui Guineas I'm not sure what to think about this horse. He's run quite a few bad or disappointing races, but some of his performances have been sensational. Did you see his finish in the Avondale Guineas?! I think the distance will be fine for him, and if he can repeat that Avondale Guineas run, he could be a great chance in this race. Odds: 8
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#3
02-25-2016, 10:27 PM
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PROVOCATIVE
 filly, Zabeel-Betwixt Trainer: Tony Pike (no Derby wins) Jockey: Leith Innes (Wahid 2006) 4 starts 2 wins 0 seconds 0 thirds NZ$18,275 6th Avondale Guineas Her win at Ellerslie two starts ago was unbelievable. Front-runners were winning that day, but she came from the back and blew them away. I thought she would be hard to beat in the Avondale Guineas, but she got a long way back and had too much work to do in the stretch. But she was finishing well, and she is definitely one of the leading chances in this race. Zabeel has sired three Derby winners - Zonda (1997), Hades (1999) and St Reims (2002). This is the first Derby since the legendary sire died in September 2015.
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#8
02-28-2016, 06:33 PM
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RAGHU
 colt, Showcasing-Fantasy World Trainer: Tony Pike (no Derby wins) Jockey: Michael McNab (no Derby wins) 8 starts 2 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds NZ$178,050 1st Karaka 3YO Mile 2nd Waikato Guineas 3rd Avondale Guineas What a tough horse. When he comes around the home turn and the others start running at him, it always looks like he's going to drop out and finish way back. But he never does. He refuses to surrender, he keeps fighting and he comes back. He is sensational to watch. But there has to be some doubt over his stamina. His sire Showcasing is known for very speedy two-year-olds, and his running style doesn't lend itself to such a gruelling trip. But he's another horse who keeps proving us wrong. Odds: 12 Last edited by _ed_ : 02-28-2016 at 08:58 PM.
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#9
02-28-2016, 08:57 PM
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TAVAGO
 gelding, Tavastock-Sara Ann Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young (no Derby wins) Jockey: Noel Callow (AUS) (no Derby wins) 5 starts 2 wins 1 seconds 1 thirds NZ$66,275 1st Wellington Stakes 3rd Karaka Mile 13th Waikato Guineas For most of the season he's been my Derby horse, but his run in the Waikato Guineas was just terrible. Obviously he's a much better horse than that, but he's going to have to turn things around big time. Odds: 12
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#10
02-28-2016, 09:01 PM
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WHAT'S THE STORY
 colt, Savabeel-Tall Story Trainer: Stephen McKee & Eddie Chippendale (no Derby wins) Jockey: Sam Spratt (no Derby wins) 6 starts 2 wins 0 seconds 0 thirds NZ$18,725 6th Trevor Eagle Memorial 7th Great Northern Guineas It's been an up-and-down season. He scored a brilliant win on debut, then struggled in his next few starts including a couple of strong stakes races. But then, in his most recent race, he was an unbelievable winner. If he can repeat that performance he's got a really good chance to win this. Odds: 12
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#11
02-29-2016, 06:09 PM
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HUMIDOR
 gelding, Teofilo-Zalika Trainer: Johno Benner & Hollie Wynyard (no Derby wins) Jockey: Mark Du Plessis (no Derby wins) 3 starts 1 wins 2 seconds 0 thirds NZ$11,775 No stakes races This is one of the most exciting three-year-olds in NZ. He has incredible talent. His acceleration is amazing. But it's possible that the Derby is just a bit too soon for him. It's only his fourth start. He should have won his last race, but his head was sideways all the way down the stretch. He's got a lot of growing up to do and he's got a lot to learn. I don't know if he'll do it by Saturday. But he's in my top three. Odds: 16
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