Hollywood Futurity - Grade 1

[Scav]

Watch out for Unusual Suspect here.

[Seattleallstar]

Belgravia is free money, and will probably win the Triple Crown

I really like Silent Soul and Stormello to seperate themselves from the group.

[ManilaRose]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Belgravia is free money, and will probably win the Triple Crown

I have 3 things to say about the Triple Crown comment:

1) L
2) O
3) L

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Belgravia is free money, and will probably win the Triple Crown

If you're looking for the TC winner, you better start reading the Florida Derby Noms.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

Belgravia is free money, and will probably win the Triple Crown

That does it. An addition to my ignore list.

--Dunbar

[King Glorious]

I don't know what happened to Principle Secret in Kentucky but he's better than what he showed. I am expecting him to win this unchallenged.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't know what happened to Principle Secret in Kentucky but he's better than what he showed. I am expecting him to win this unchallenged.

Agree 100% that he's better than what he showed in KY. Guessing it was bleeding or something along that order...

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree 100% that he's better than what he showed in KY. Guessing it was bleeding or something along that order...

I can't remember the exact reason but after the race there was indeed a physical excuse, something happened to him that made him rank and try and run away with the rider and look bad.
Im not saying I like him in this spot, but the excuse certainly sounded valid to me. Not that it makes him a better horse than he is.

This race has a fantastic field. It is really hard to handicap this race in my opinion. It is hard to knock Principle Secret and Stormello and it is hard to look past Belgravia. Notional and Usual Suspect are improving colts. Should be a good race. Be interresting to see if Stormello and Princple Secret have improved since their last race. If I was going to wager on the race, it would be Principal Secret or Liquidty.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

Last time:

Do NOT throw out races.
Do NOT draw a line through a race.
BELIEVE your eyes.

U should already know that I don't throw out races. I don't accept excuses. That race certainly put up a red flag for me about this horse. But at the same time I'm believing my eyes about that last one, I'm believing what I saw in his first races. If I see Kobe go 5-27 tonight, I won't stop believing he's a great player. Off days happen sometimes. I'm hoping Principle Secret reverts to his previous and expecting that because of his last, I'll get a decent price.

I also like Stormello, but Principle Secret will run a better race

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If I see Kobe go 5-27 tonight, I won't stop believing he's a great player.

See him????

Dicksie IS Kobe.

[cakes44]

I thought Principle Secret got gashed up pretty good at the start of the BC Juvie, and that's why he took off.

[Danzig]

i don't think you should throw out a race just because a supposed good horse didn't win. i saw several posters say that bernardinis loss to invasor was a toss--but he ran his usual race.
however, some do need throwing out, such as afleet alex's horrible race at oaklawn. a lot of scoffing when the trainer announced that they found a lung infection. he never ran another bad race after that.
premium taps loss after kent d tried to commit a murder/suicide would qualify imo as a toss for him. his next two efforts bear that out.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Just saw the race replay of the '91 edition of this race, this is when I fell in love with AP Indy. His running style of "head down and grinding" coming down the stretch was a favorite of mine. He was my Derby pick in 1992 and I was very disappointed when he scratched the morning of the race.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

Last time:

Do NOT throw out races.
Do NOT draw a line through a race.
BELIEVE your eyes.

Sometimes you have to. The eyes DO deceive sometimes. Let's say today's race is a sprint on a dry track. If the last race was in slop, or routing or on grass, its irrelevant. What if the horse was racing 5 wide against a strong rail bias? Or a horse finished badly because it dueled hard for 6f (i.e. Principle Secret)? Go strictly by the last race and you end up on too many underlays.

BTW, Principle Secret isn't the only California horse who's run poorly in another state w/out race day Bute.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dixie Porter

Last time:

Do NOT throw out races.
Do NOT draw a line through a race.

Of course I don't agree with this at all.

Circumstances dictate outcomes A LOT in horse racing. In my opinion, both Stormello and Principle Secret are horses who will be more effective (possibly far more so) sprinting, as opposed to routing.

Anyone who followed the 2006 Oak Tree meet knows how ridiculiously kind to speed that track was all meeting long. I believe that both Principle Secret and Stormello were carried to a 1-2 finish in the Norfolk by the nature of the way that racetrack was playing.

Stormello obviously running the better race of the two.

In the Breeders Cup Juvie, Princible Secret and Stormello would set ABSURDLY fast fractions for the distance, while racing 1-2 through the first two pace calls. Meanwhile, the horses racing 13th and 14th (Last & 2nd to Last) through the pace calls....would end up 1st and 2nd at the wire, with the 15/1 shot double digit length winner, running a 108 Beyer figure in victory. The fastest Beyer ever earned in a Breeders Cup Juvie by quite a bit.

Basically, Princible Secret and Stormello both do probably deserve another go at a Grade 1 route race in Southern California...because they ran 1-2 in the Norfolk, which obviously is the last major So. Cal 2yo route stake.

However, these two horses both played a key role in making Street Sense look like the 2nd coming in the Breeders Cup. Both of these horses are totally bred to be sprinters, and I believe both of them will eventually find their way off the "Derby Trail" and on, maybe the King's Bishop trail or something like that.

* Principle Secrets sire won all four of his races sprinting, and failed both times he ran a route of ground. His dam was a sprinter/miler type who is kin to a Graded Stakes winning sprinter.

* Stormello is by Stormy Atlantic out of a really bad Carson City race mare. The female family is totally laced with many useful sprinting stakes types.

I'm not betting the Hollywood Futurity myself...but if I was, I'd look beyond the 1-2 finishers in the Norfolk, and probably for an off-the-pace type.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

* Principle Secrets sire won all four of his races sprinting, and failed both times he ran a route of ground. His dam was a sprinter/miler type who is kin to a Graded Stakes winning sprinter.

* Stormello is by Stormy Atlantic out of a really bad Carson City race mare. The female family is totally laced with many useful sprinting stakes types..

Im actually going to have to agree with this. Nothing about their pedigrees warrant a look for anything over a mile to a mile and sixteenth.

[King Glorious]

That sums up the problem I have with going by pedigrees. I'm not sure how u can say nothing in their pedigrees warrants even a look when those same two horses have already run 1-2 in Southern California's biggest race of the year so far for 2yo's at the same distance as today's race. There's an old saying in sports that says u should always consider someone when they are being asked to do something they've done before, especially when facing those that have never been asked to do it. This isn't saying that u have to like them for the win but not even warranting a look?