Interesting Robotic Wagering discussion started by Frank Angst

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

If someone is routinely breaking even, then the rest of the bettors must be doing worse than the track takeout. There's nothing abnormal or intrinsically unfair about that. The question here is whether the people who are breaking even have an unfair advantage given to them by their access to digital pool information and ability to bet after everyone else.

It would be an unfair advantage if they had up to the second updates and I didn't. But that info would't help me unless I knew what their wager was first. Even if I know what the final odds are, I still have to pick the winner.
If everyone had set odds the only thing that changes is the reshuffling of decision making. The same amount of money is lost by all horseplayers.

They're trimming the top end of payoffs and raising the lower end.
My job is to select the winner.
I have to accept the payoff and know that sometimes I will get more than I expected and sometimes less.

It should be a live ticker for everyone. Even if it was I'm responsible for my decision making. I struggle with it all the time. Do I bet the 5-1 or the 6-1 or both. Maybe I should pass the race.

They're betting every horse in the race, correct? You can't bet all of them, or can you? Money flows in on who they believe are the best values and on everyone else to a lesser degree to minimize losses. Am I wrong about this?
Shouldn't we just get the rebates they get?

I welcome their money. I would like to know why pool info isn't similar to a stock ticker with time and sales.

[tanner12oz]

I dont have an issue with crw. Its simply a sign of the times and is happening in every other financial, gambling market. Smart people with big wallets taking advantage of a situation..i applaud them

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I dont have an issue with crw. Its simply a sign of the times and is happening in every other financial, gambling market. Smart people with big wallets taking advantage of a situation..i applaud them

Really?

Where in a casino is one gambler given access by the casino to information that is not available to all other players?

Where in a casino can one gambler gain a clear advantage by being the last to bet.

As I mentioned, poker players have an advantage when they are the last to bet. That's why in Hold'Em the dealer button passes on every round. A blackjack card counter gets an advantage by being the last to play his or her hand, but any gambler who wants that position can sit down and take it. It is not reserved for favored customers or those with fat wallets.

[saratogadew]

I must be missing something here, but I see crw money as a good thing also. It was stated earlier that most of that money is bet into WPS and exacta pools. In a 10 horse race there is a 10% chance that money is on the horse that I bet. That would mean 90% of the time I am getting extra value on the horse that I bet. Also there are 90 different exacta combinations in a 10 horse field. The chances that their last second big exacta bet is on my combination is very slim, thus giving me extra value. Can someone give me the scenario that crw hurts my wallet on an ongoing basis?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

I must be missing something here, but I see crw money as a good thing also. It was stated earlier that most of that money is bet into WPS and exacta pools. In a 10 horse race there is a 10% chance that money is on the horse that I bet. That would mean 90% of the time I am getting extra value on the horse that I bet. Also there are 90 different exacta combinations in a 10 horse field. The chances that their last second big exacta bet is on my combination is very slim, thus giving me extra value. Can someone give me the scenario that crw hurts my wallet on an ongoing basis?

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

I see your point but when we speak of (They) we are not speaking of a boogeyman behind a black curtain. These are people who have invested a lot of their money into a computer program they believe will help them make profit. If its out there, then we all truly could get access. People use certain programs to bet money lines in sports. The program simulates the game being played 50 thousand times and they lay the money down on the value side. Is this really affecting the guy putting a hundred or even a thousand on the team of their choice. Also, in horse racing, can value be quantified? All perceived value is really just opinion isnt it. One mans overlay is another mans underlay. If ML odds came out on AP at 5-1, 99% of us would bet it double fisted and the line would adjust accordingly. But if ML were set at 4-5, I would say half would think overlay, and half underlay. Value is just an opinion. How do we all feel about bridge jumpers? I put my 10.00 down to show, they plop down the 50K bet on the horse and depress my winnings.
I am a tri and multi-race player most of the time but this is a very, very complex issue as stated earlier. I can see both sides.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The point is that they're privy to information that you aren't and are able to significantly depress potential payouts with no notice to you. Whether or not they're on "your" play (which will be way more than 10% of the time unless you're just throwing darts, by the way), they're making it immeasurably harder for the individual player to assess and pursue value.

but he could be privy to that info..togadew could crw, you could crw we all could crw..the only thing preventing us is bankroll and technology. This is class warfare imo more then anything illegal or shady.