Sat 6/13 Play

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by casp0555

nice job Benny

SA 7
$4 Pick3 - 4,5,6,7,8/4/2,7
$40

172.80 thx to the DQ that worked out okay

[Lava]

Churchill Race 5 $20 WP #5

[casp0555]

CD 5

$6 ex 7 /2,8

[herkhorse]

CD pick 5
379/126/2379/124/13

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Gamlin1

Wanted the 3 in leg 3 to come in Fing chalk

+21.20

Lost money again

you and me both

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by jms62

This is nothing against you Scott but filing a game plan is an absurd idea. Maybe this is an opportunity for us as horseplayers to compile statistcs on jockeys and how they perform on speed horses in these situations.

No offense taken - thanks for the views. Both JRC (Japan) and Hong Kong DEMAND plans filed from the trainer prior to their races covering issues like intention to go for the lead, midpack, or close, whether the race is a warm-up for a later event, or any infirmaties that the horse has experienced. Moreso, both the JRC and HKJC require the horse's weight to be reported on a race-by-race basis. Both of these pieces of information would be huge benefits to the US-based past performance analysis.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

There is also no way you can win when you take a confirmed speed horse out of their game. Where did Heart to Heart end up today? You're telling me Saez wouldn't have had a better chance if he just let his horse run? The thing stalked a freaking :44 and change half last time!

This is exactly the point - if the intention was to rate the horse in order to teach some new lessons that might be applicable for longer distances, wouldn't you have wanted to know that as a handicapper. I would have said to myself, this horse is not pressing a 44:4-45:3 half mile time so what implications does that have on my betting strategy.

The problem is that you can no longer decide who is leaving and who is stalking - the paces seem random. Take for example Cornelio Velasquez's win on Knuckle Curve in the 7th race. Ask yourself this question : Cornelio, normally a very conservative rider, breaks with this horse and pushes him to the lead. I would have liked to know that the strategy was to put this one on the lead since my bets on both Tiz the Moment and Fitzgerald would have been different.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Gamlin1

Wanted the 3 in leg 3 to come in Fing chalk

+21.20

Lost money again

Something I have found over the years : The probability of the favorite winning increases proportionally with the amount of coverage you have in that leg.

[casp0555]

CD 6
$1.50 Pick4 - 1,2,3/2,7,9/1,2,5/5
$40.50

[Lava]

Churchill Race 6 $20 WP #6

[Benny]

Churchill Downs Race: 6
Amount: $0.50 Type: Pick 4 Horses: 1,3,6/2,4,7-9/1,2,5/2,5,7
Total Cost: $67.50

[Lava]

Originally Posted by Lava

Churchill Race 6 $20 WP #6

$274

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Lava

$274

nice lava .....i got shut out on my saver

$2 Pick3 - 7,9/1,2,4,5,7/5
$20

[herkhorse]

nice lava

EVD pick 4

37/27/36/all

[Lava]

Thanks everyone

Churchill Race 7 $20 WP #1

[herkhorse]

Cd 7

20 Dd 2/4

[casp0555]

you have got to be kidding me....

[Lava]

Churchill Race 8 $50 WP #5

[Benny]

k: Churchill Downs Race: 8
Amount: $0.50 Type: Pick 4 Horses: 1,2,5/2,5,7/1,2,4/3,5
Total Cost: $27.00

[herkhorse]

CD 9

20 ex box 1-7