Kellyn Gorder - buh bye for 14 months

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

My stats have fell off this year. Certainly i haven't changed anything. The crop of babies i got last year haven't panned out. Some horses break their maidens and get stuck at the next level. Could be he just doesn't have the same stock this year. I know i don't.

The old 'stats have fallen off' argument is always precious.

Tom Proctor, 17-20% any year, went 3 for 58 (5%) in November-December last year. Must have stopped 'using'.. Or as he said, 'didn't have a 2yo that could run and the good ones retired'.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The old 'stats have fallen off' argument is always precious.

Careful now. The old "stats have fallen off" argument actually IS precious. Now, I will admit, 106 starters in a year is not a good enough sample to prove against a five year record, and perhaps one could find a 12 month period during that five year run that was comparable, but those numbers are surely not meaningless.

It would be interesting to compare the speed figures of the runners in that 106 start sample to their numbers from the prior year.

I understand the side you're taking, and there is much to be said for it, but being dismissive of stats, especially when they come from someone like Doug, is at best defensive on your part. Stats are actually a very strong argument for the other side of your arguement.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Careful now. The old "stats have fallen off" argument actually IS precious. Now, I will admit, 106 starters in a year is not a good enough sample to prove against a five year record, and perhaps one could find a 12 month period during that five year run that was comparable, but those numbers are surely not meaningless.

It would be interesting to compare the speed figures of the runners in that 106 start sample to their numbers from the prior year.

I understand the side you're taking, and there is much to be said for it, but being dismissive of stats, especially when they come from someone like Doug, is at best defensive on your part. Stats are actually a very strong argument for the other side of your arguement.

No.. I know that. Doug and Jerry Brown too rightly utilize figs/stats in this area. I'm just noting that 'chaotic number theory' in terms of streaks and, as Alan points out, ebbs and flows of stock can be applied to almost all outfits.

[Calzone Lord]

I did a blog column on the topic:

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/...ination-claims

Admittedly, it's a 'on the one hand' -- 'but, on the other hand' sort of thing.

[Calzone Lord]

Regarding contamination in horse racing tests...

1-ounce of coffee equals 12 million nanograms of Caffeine.

However, only 100 nanograms of Caffeine are needed to trigger a 15-day suspension for the trainer and disqualification of purse.

Basically, one sip of coffee is enough to put a race horse 120,000 times over the testing limit for caffeine.

Considering that caffeine is commonly consumed around race horses (coffee, soda, chocolate bars, etc) why don't we see more cases of bad caffeine tests via contamination?

Patrick Biancone got a 15-day suspension for a Caffeine overage -- and a related search of his barn found Cobra Venom. I guess he probably could've argued that the bad test for Caffeine was a contamination, if not for the fact that the search nabbed him for Cobra Venom.

Biancone caffeine ban: http://www.drf.com/news/biancone-dra...y-ban-caffeine

For general sports fans, it's easy to be pessimistic. How stupid does this Nike commercial look now?:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIl5RxhLZ5U


Here's a 10-second clip of a supposedly straight-shooting guy waiving his finger at Congress:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ1UMaAosV8


Aaron Rodgers was so sure Ryan Braun didn't cheat -- he offered to bet his $8.5 million salary on it: https://twitter.com/AaronRodgers12/s...14847518572544


Of course, Braun somehow won with his 'contaminated urine sample' defense. But he got busted for PED's again, not long after that.

With human athletes, we've come to accept that "where there's smoke, there's fire" and claims of contaminated tests are usually mocked.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I did a blog column on the topic:

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/...ination-claims

Admittedly, it's a 'on the one hand' -- 'but, on the other hand' sort of thing.

Excellent piece, Doug. Win% is easy enough to grab, but ROI truly tells the story.

Truth is, we likely will never know the real story. One would like to believe that his story adds up, and that a deeper dive into the sample to test for the specific derivative meth found (the derivative of meth found in Sulfamethoxazole, a common veterinary antibiotic for example, is much different from crystal meth, MDMA, etc.) would corroborate his claim.

Is 106 starts in 5 months enough of a sample size to draw a correlation between him taking a more than occasional edge with "something" prior to the investigation and post-bust?

Typically, where there is smoke there's fire.

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I did a blog column on the topic:

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/...ination-claims

Admittedly, it's a 'on the one hand' -- 'but, on the other hand' sort of thing.

Excellent article Doug..Being that our state lab here in La. is lax at best, were having some chemical warfare down here between a few trainers. Were having some big move ups in a short period of time.

[TheSpyder]

Good one Doug.

[Arletta]

Article by Rich Halvey

"Barker at LSU for the significance of 48 picograms of meth and he said, “48 picograms of meth isn’t enough to get a flea high.” Whatever the actual amount of meth needed to get a flea high, Dr. Barker’s statement is clearly indicative that the amount of the drug in Bourbon Warfare’s system would have zero impact on the horse’s running time. In fact, if the 48 picograms was indicative of anything, it was that the most likely source of the meth was an environmental contamination."



http://halveyonhorseracing.com/