2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[Dunbar]

Here's a list of Derby odds taken from just 2 offshore books: Just 4 are from Bookmaker.com. The rest are from 5Dimes.

This line's odds add to 111%, which is equivalent to a 10% takeout. Considering that it includes about 7 also-eligibles, that's a pretty remarkable number.

AMERICANPHAROAH.. 3.05 --Bookmaker
DORTMUND.. 5
CARPEDIEM.. 10
MUBTAAHIJ.. 12
MATERIALITY.. 14.15 --Bookmaker
FROSTED.. 20
FIRINGLINE.. 20
UPSTART.. 25
INTERNATIONALSTAR.. 25
EL KABEIR.. 40
BOLO.. 50
FARRIGHT.. 50
WARSTORY.. 50
OCHO OCHO OCHO 50
DANZIGMOON.. 50
ONELUCKYDANE.. 50
ITSAKNOCKOUT.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
TENCENDUR.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
Keen Ice.. 66
Madefromlucky.. 66
STANFORD.. 66
Bold Conquest.. 66
Mr. Z.. 66
Frammento.. 66
Metaboss.. 100
Firespike.. 100
ToastingMaster.. 100


Toasting Master? Not sure why he's in this list, but if you discount his chance of making the starting gate, the takeout is 9%.


--Dunbar

[Danzig]

Intl star sweeps la and is 25.1. Hed be worth a few bucks

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Intl star sweeps la and is 25.1. Hed be worth a few bucks

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Kitan]

Wasn't Friesan Fire coming off a 7 week layoff?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Frosted at 20-1 might be a good price. I expect he becomes a bit of a wise guy horse over the next two weeks.

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

Hasn't done anything wrong, I just don't think he's good enough at this stage. Was my key longshot in the Wood and I feel that was the race to play him. Maybe he moved too early, but Frosted easily breezed past. His BRIS LP figs are very close but not high enough historically to make me want to confidently use him underneath.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

He's a toss for me. He was closer to the moderate pace and still unable to hold off Frosted. He will be getting a new jockey and there's a chance he bounces.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

I agree with you, btw. Especially at the 60-1 being offered offshore.

--Dunbar

[jnunan4759]

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by jnunan4759

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

I thought it's 100 + takeout + # of starters. Don't know off hand what CD's WPS rake is, but it seems like 145 is a fair par

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

I think FF had tremendous physical issues though.