Deepest Derby field in recent memory

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Agreed. It seems to me that there have been years in the past where a horse with International Star's connections, PPs, and pedigree would have been one of the top two or three choices. This year he probably won't be in the top six or seven.

No there haven't been. He is way too slow to have ever been one of the first three choices. Plus, there is absolutely nothing sexy about him whatsoever.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No there haven't been. He is way too slow to have ever been one of the first three choices. Plus, there is absolutely nothing sexy about him whatsoever.

Wasn't Friesan Fire the post time favorite in his race? Do you really think International Star looks that much worse than FF did coming out of Louisiana?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Wasn't Friesan Fire the post time favorite in his race? Do you really think International Star looks that much worse than FF did coming out of Louisiana?

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

Wasn't Mena bordering a PETA onslaught from his 20+ whips (correct me if I'm wrong on that number) in the stretch?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think his point may be that the Cali shippers are going to be overbet based on their West Coast form vs. how IS got here, which, granted, the LA route has been the thinnest of them to date.

I like horses that aren't overtaxed in their last prep (the Upstart love is great - keep it up) and saw how easily IS managed the LA Derby field first hand. Will be very interested in how Far Right responds over fast dirt tomorrow, and hesitant to dismiss anyone based on "being way too slow" in preps where they weren't really stretched.

IS wasn't really stretched in the LA Derby? I didn't see it that way.

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Kitan

Wasn't Mena bordering a PETA onslaught from his 20+ whips (correct me if I'm wrong on that number) in the stretch?

Originally Posted by miraja2

IS wasn't really stretched in the LA Derby? I didn't see it that way.

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

I think that's the way this horse needs to be ridden in the stretch, particularly when chasing crawling fractions.

His Risen Star was similar. He galloped out strongly in both efforts and really only needed to run the last 3/8ths or so. Additionally, he should definitely get a more favorable pace scenario in Kentucky and is a must use IMO. To toss the horse based on presumed slowness is a bit perplexing, is all.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think that's the way this horse needs to be ridden in the stretch, particularly when chasing crawling fractions.

His Risen Star was similar. He galloped out strongly in both efforts and really only needed to run the last 3/8ths or so. Additionally, he should definitely get a more favorable pace scenario in Kentucky and is a must use IMO. To toss the horse based on presumed slowness is a bit perplexing, is all.

I'm not sure he can win but I was telling Thunder Gulch the other day that he is the type of horse that will probably hit the exotics at somewhere close to 20-1,

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by 3kings

I'm not sure he can win but I was telling Thunder Gulch the other day that he is the type of horse that will probably hit the exotics at somewhere close to 20-1,

Yeah Tom... Watching AP's hand ride today - with a decent draw for both he and Dortmund, it's going to be hard not to believe this will chalk out, particularly if closers like IS and FR get trapped inside...Still a long way to go, but was really hoping to see more from Far Right today. IS has had a dream set up in the LeComte, followed up by 2 dream trips in the Risen Star and LA Derby. I personally do not believe we've seen his best, nor do I think Far Right is done if there is something that seriously challenges AP on the front.

I'm not ready to completely dismiss either, but we would need a severe meltdown on the front end by both of AP and Dortmund to make it interesting.

Not convinced that the Florida (GP & Tampa), nor the NY route has shown us anything to be excited about, though CD to me is still intriguing. Divining Rod's paid workout today did little to persuade me that he's a serious contender.
The draw tells all, now.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

My point wasn't that people should bet on International Star. My point was that in this Derby people probably won't bet on a horse like him because there appears to be a considerable number of very talented colts in the race. That hasn't always been the case in past years.

Yes!

[Kitan]

I don't think he seems slow. His Beyers are always improving and he has one of the highest BRIS Late Pace figs in the field. In fact, he's one of only five (possibly two more depending on the race later today, neither of which will be AP regardless of if he wins by the length of the stretch or not) that I can see winning. The rest would be surprising. I'll be using him, especially in cover multiples, but I'm not overly convinced by his actual talent, irrespective of numbers. His form outside of FG is just okay, and at FG he 1) didn't beat much, and 2) may just have loved the course. I was high on War Story prior to the La. Derby and backed him in futures expecting further progress, but that didn't happen. Based on that I can't see him factoring much, neither will Stanford. Keen Ice is a plodder and Tiznow RJ is a few cuts below. I don't wish bad will on anyone, but in a sense it wouldn't be the worst thing if he didn't run well in the Derby. To be in contention and ridden like that, in America's biggest race, would not be what racing needs in terms of spotlight. I wouldn't agree with the outcry or the notion that he could run as well when not being pushed so aggressively, but the media would have a field day.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kitan

I don't think he seems slow. His Beyers are always improving and he has one of the highest BRIS Late Pace figs in the field. In fact, he's one of only five (possibly two more depending on the race later today, neither of which will be AP regardless of if he wins by the length of the stretch or not) that I can see winning. The rest would be surprising. I'll be using him, especially in cover multiples, but I'm not overly convinced by his actual talent, irrespective of numbers. His form outside of FG is just okay, and at FG he 1) didn't beat much, and 2) may just have loved the course. I was high on War Story prior to the La. Derby and backed him in futures expecting further progress, but that didn't happen. Based on that I can't see him factoring much, neither will Stanford. Keen Ice is a plodder and Tiznow RJ is a few cuts below. I don't wish bad will on anyone, but in a sense it wouldn't be the worst thing if he didn't run well in the Derby. To be in contention and ridden like that, in America's biggest race, would not be what racing needs in terms of spotlight. I wouldn't agree with the outcry or the notion that he could run as well when not being pushed so aggressively, but the media would have a field day.

I consider him the 11th most likely winner. Deep field.