Am I reading this right?

[Fanofthejuiceguys]

The stable where the three came from sends out live 2yo's, the public ignored this one with reasonable works (as good as the 1 and 2) for whatever reason. Perhaps One Suit Oracle told everyone she has a lung infection and not to bet her.

[Dunbar]

It would actually be wonderful if we knew that the 1-2-3 tri's and exactas were overbet routinely to this degree. It would be an extremely powerful angle.

I'm sure someone must have looked at this in the past. It's so easy to do. You just look at the ROI for all exacta combos. If 1-2-3 is overbet enough by numbers players, it would stick out like a sore thumb (or, even more painfully, like a post that capitalizes the first letter of every word.)

--Dunbar

[philcski]

This payoff is appalling. If you had wheeled 2 with ALL it would have been an $18 bet, you would have gotten 21/1 on your money versus 11/1 in the win pool, or about a 2:1 multiplier, even with the extra takeout. Typically with the 3rd or 4th choice in a 10 horse field you'd get a 2:1 multiplier (versus with the 5/2 favorite you'd probably end up with a half to a third payoff, $80 ish). Ordinal rank means almost as much as the odds in this case; you have the 7th choice and and the 10th and longest choice. There are 90 possible exacta combinations and this would be about the 75th likeliest.

The trifecta payoff, even though it's tougher to determine "willpays", is ridiculously low as well.

[blackthroatedwind]

But, Phil, the trifecta is NOT low relative to the exacta price.

I will get more information but it does not appear that anything sinister was going on.....believe it or not.

Did CC Lopez ride the favorite by any chance?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, Phil, the trifecta is NOT low relative to the exacta price.

I will get more information but it does not appear that anything sinister was going on.....believe it or not.

Did CC Lopez ride the favorite by any chance?

jose ferrer, maybe??

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GPK

jose ferrer, maybe??

Same thing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, Phil, the trifecta is NOT low relative to the exacta price.
I will get more information but it does not appear that anything sinister was going on.....believe it or not.

Did CC Lopez ride the favorite by any chance?

Agreed, you would expect about a 3X multiplier with a 11/2 choice in 3rd and that's what it got (people often overestimate the value of the 3rd slot- exacta pays $20 and a 20-1 finishes third "it should pay $400!" no stupid, $160 if you're lucky.) My "finger in the air" test says $550 and $1800, minimum. The favorite was ridden by Ramon Dominguez...

I wasn't going to reply to this but I've seen a lot of low payoffs in NY lately on intrarace bets. The multirace payoffs seem very much in line, I was shocked that someone actually picked 6 yesterday with no carryover but I suppose if you were clairvoyant enough to go deep in the two maiden races you could have had it as the others were all very logical. I don't believe there's any funny business going on but past-posting scares me. It could potentially destroy the game, and given the running of the race (the 2 taking a huge lead into the stretch) there's no reason someone with the ability to crack the pools couldn't punch a late bet or two, you know what i mean?

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed, you would expect about a 3X multiplier with a 11/2 choice in 3rd and that's what it got (people often overestimate the value of the 3rd slot- exacta pays $20 and a 20-1 finishes third "it should pay $400!" no stupid, $160 if you're lucky.) My "finger in the air" test says $550 and $1800, minimum. The favorite was ridden by Ramon Dominguez...

I wasn't going to reply to this but I've seen a lot of low payoffs in NY lately on intrarace bets. The multirace payoffs seem very much in line, I was shocked that someone actually picked 6 yesterday with no carryover but I suppose if you were clairvoyant enough to go deep in the two maiden races you could have had it as the others were all very logical. I don't believe there's any funny business going on but past-posting scares me. It could potentially destroy the game, and given the running of the race (the 2 taking a huge lead into the stretch) there's no reason someone with the ability to crack the pools couldn't punch a late bet or two, you know what i mean?

Not to mention the shockingly low payout on the pik-3 that ended in race 5.

Far less than half the parlay.
I find it sickening the people make jusice accusations all the time, and paranoid about so many things, yet when payouts like the ones we've seen the last 2-4 weeks are brought up, fears are dismissed.
This shakes peoples confidence in how on the level these races are far more than a late scrtach.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Not to mention the shockingly low payout on the pik-3 that ended in race 5.

Far less than half the parlay.
I find it sickening the people make jusice accusations all the time, and paranoid about so many things, yet when payouts like the ones we've seen the last 2-4 weeks are brought up, fears are dismissed.
This shakes peoples confidence in how on the level these races are far more than a late scrtach.

I find it shocking that someone wouldn't understand that a Jimmy Jerkens first time starter that won a race at 10-1 was significantly shorter in Pick-3 pools that were bet without the benefit of knowing the actual betting in a race full of first time starters.

If you actually looked through the entire relative sequence you would see that the two pick-3s that were bet with the 4th race odds " dark ", so to speak, were short the parlay while the one that began with the 4th, and thus showed the actual betting, paid well over the parlay.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Not to mention the shockingly low payout on the pik-3 that ended in race 5.
Far less than half the parlay.
I find it sickening the people make jusice accusations all the time, and paranoid about so many things, yet when payouts like the ones we've seen the last 2-4 weeks are brought up, fears are dismissed.
This shakes peoples confidence in how on the level these races are far more than a late scrtach.

This was less surprising because that horse was probably only worth 6-1 in the pick 3 (making the $114 more reasonable), logically you would HAVE to include that horse if you were casting a more-than-just-the-top-two net in the dark, which I would think most players did.

On the flip side, the pick 3 starting with the 4th race paid more than double the parlay amount ($3,907 vs. $1,844)