PHA: 'Drop a Dime'

[Kasept]

Excellent weekend of action culminated in our first try, and hit, of a 'Dime Super'... Can understand the appeal after boxing 5 ($12) in the tricky 8th at Hollywood Sunday evening and bringing back $107.00. The Dime Super allows you to swing for the fences with price horses without impacting your bankroll.

While the box we used is one option, keying a longshot or any overrlay, with 6 horses underneath (1 with 6x5x4) would cost the same $12 as the 5 horse box and allows you to include 2 extra ponies. Strong opinions in 8 or 10 or even 12 horse fields could be approached reasonably with the Dime Super if you embrace a pair on top:

8 horse field: 1-2x1-2 with 6x5 ($6.00)
10 horse field: 1-2x1-2 with 8x7 ($11.20)
12 horse field: 1-2x1-2 with 10x9 ($18.00)

While the bet is fun and the pleasure of 'hitting the super' is great, you have to be careful about the allocation of funds, and can use Sunday's race as an example.

http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesI...HOL1112080.pdf

While we had no firm opinion about the race and were just playing for 'action', it wouldn't have been hard to come up with Frankel's Citronnade, our first choice, as a key horse. Playing Fun Bobby's 5-1 Lemon Drop Kid soph with 4 horses in an exacta key for $4 (same $12 outlay), brought you back $85.20. And would have been arguably 'easier' to hit than getting 4 of the 5 horses used in the super box to get in the top four slots.

But the key is the 'upside' of the super. Using Citronnade as a key in a dime super with all 8 others would have cost $33.60. In a turf contest where it was difficult to eliminate exotics contenders, this might not have been an insane play. With 11-1 Zoemeg a clear second pumping up the payoffs, 3-2 favorite Grande Melody was third by a mere length. 6-1 Kris' Sis, 19-1 Indy Miss and 48-1 Aravalli were all right behind her seperated by 2 necks...

What would the payoff have been had the pair behind Citonnade and Zoemeg been Indy Miss (19-1) and Aravalli (48-1)? 5-1 over an 11-1 over a 19-1 over a 48-1? Forgetaboutit... That combo likely would have produced something in the $10,000-$12,000 range (minimum), getting you between 30-1 and 40-1 on your $33 investment (.10 super payoff between $1,000-$1,200). As it was, we got 8-1 on our $12 plunge and were more than satisfied with the return.

We'll likely play some more dime supers and continue to try to formulate a coherent approach, but at first blush, it looks like a bet that has the kind of low risk-high reward that we find most appealling in a game that demands ever-changing approaches to stay ahead.


SELECTIONS -- Philadelphia Park, 11/14/06 (Races 4-8, P3's)

Not an especially exciting card on Street Road Tuesday with many heavy favorites looking tough to beat, but here's a glance at the last five events of the day and the three P3 opportunities they present...

Carryovers at Hollywood, Churchill and Aqueduct Wednesday... Full coverage on Derby Trail and on Tuesday night's "At the Races and Beyond" with insights on the sextets from Andy Serling (NY), Brad Free (CA) and someone else (KY)...


4th: CLM/N4L, 6f (P3)

1. #3 GOD'S POCKET 6-5 2nd @ 1-5
2. #6 Handy Prospect 15-1 WON @ 14-1
A. #4 Dixie Avenue 5-2
B. #1 Cold Chicken


5th: CLM/N2Y, 1m,70y (P3)

1. #5 COPPER MOCCASSIN 6-5 2nd
2. #1 Rahy's Gold 5-2 WON
3. #2 Holiday Peak 4-1


6th: MSW, 6.5f (P3)

1. #5 GRAYNUMBERFIVE 1-1 SCRATCHED
2. #4 Pine Hawk 9-2 3rd
A. #6 David's Dance 3-1 SCRATCHED
B. #7 Hey 10-1 WON


7th: ALW/N2X, 1m (DD)

1. #2 NOT VERY LADYLIKE 3-1 WON @ 5-2
2. #1 Mayan Princess 9-2
3. #3 Princess Purrsalot 6-1


8th: CLM/N3L, 1m (Superfecta)

1. #3 Jenkim 8-1
2. #1 D'amber Dream 9-2
A. #2 Kellers Church Rd. 6-1
B. #5 Political Quest 7-2
C. #4 Night Stand 9-2


<$25 P3 Plays: Scratches botched up the plays quite a bit...

4: 3
5: 1-2-5
6: 4-7 (Scratches of 5-6 left the 4-7)

1x3x2 x $2 = $12 (post scratches)


5: 5
6: 4-7 (Scratches of 5-6 left the 4-7)
7: 1-2-3

1x2x3 x $2 = $12 (post scratches)


6: 4 (7) (Scratches of #5-6 left the #4 only from original play.. #7 left from top 4 picks)
7: 2
8: all

2x1x7 x $1 = $14 (post scratches)

Pick 3 pays $69


Good luck..!
Steve