Pletcher

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I didn't have Formulator available to look up the stats -- but one thing I knew is that Pletcher is a student of himself.

This is what Pletcher's stats looked like for his entire career at the end of 1999.




His horses had just a $1.44 ROI with normal rest -- basically losing double the takeout from a sample size of almost a thousand races.

His horses who had more than 30 days off since their last start had produced a 7% profit from a sample size of just over 500 races.

Pletcher started saying in interviews that his horses run better when he gives them more time between starts. I don't know if he based that on the stats above or he based it on less statistically oriented observations.

He has a horse running in the Fayette off of two weeks rest this Saturday -- obviously he's only running it because he feels it is a polytrack specialist and he has no other Poly options to wait for with that horse.

Thus, the horse Saturday is very well meant... but it has to be well meant in order for him to start it against his own established MO

where does that percentage fit in compared to others? is that something you use when handicapping?
for the poly horse-how would you weigh the info? he's starting a horse because there may not be another race in the offing-but you know he typically doesn't do well on quicker run backs. so would you be more inclined to say bet against on him, knowing pletchers record?