8/29: Saratoga (Day 35; P.G. Johnson)

[Kasept]

As mentioned Tuesday on ATR, was annoyed at myself for not taking a pass on Monday when unprepared for the action, but the Saratoga slates and the added lure of a carryover is kind of irresistible. But in doing so after the busy, intense weekend, I missed an obvious horse in the Tony Dutrow winner of the 5th (O' Frederica) and generally made other sloppy decisions wasting some of Sunday's gains. Lesson learned is that you shouldn't play just to play. Moving forward, if I don't post selections during a period like Saratoga, it will be because I wasn't able to adequately prepare and it would be a disservice to anyone that uses my opinion as a guide.

We have a great card to kick off the final week of the meet Wednesday and let's finish this tricky season with a flourish!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)

2yo's going 9 panels always interesting. KMc's stats on this bode well for Thane obviously, but there are 3 here that went 8.5f turfy furlongs already and that provides plenty of bottom for this endeavor..

Most Likely: #5 Thane 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Norumbega 5-1 WON ($17.40)
Next Best: #3 Western Sadler 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Boogie Too 6-1 6th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Interesting $65k 2yo set with Smoke Town (Half to Redeemed), Brazilian Court (Half to Devoted Wildcat) notable on pedigree..

Most Likely: #3 Smoke Town 2-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 6-1 2nd-DQ'd from WIN
Next Best: #2 Scofield 6-1 WON-Via DQ ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Brother Bob 7-2 3rd


3rd: David-NY, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Serpe has quietly had an outstanding season up here and Weekend Hideaway should win here to further augment Smilin' Phil's summer..

Most Likely: #5 Weekend Hideaway 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #6 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Awesome Weekend 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Slot Play 5-1 2nd


4th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Cat and mouse kind of group and under that scenario, don't we all want Dominguez? I'm singling Serpe colt above and taking all of these in the P4..

Most Likely: #1 Promise Me a Cat 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Smokin' Alice 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Hearts of Red 6-1 WON ($25.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Bessie M 2-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Be aware that the AE's (#11, #12, #13) all merit respect if any get in..

Most Likely: #1 Fredricksburg 2-1: Came in debut after bad break.. WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Irsaal: Strong page for task; Dam a half to St. Liam 6th
Next Best: #8 Summer Shiner 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Brickyard Kitten 6-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5
3: 5
4: 1-2-3-4-5-6
5: 1-3-8-12

3x1x6x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/5,6/3/1,6,11,13,14,15,16) Paid $388.50 ($194.25 for .50)


6th: Win-R, 3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Classy group. As mentioned by Andy Serling on Tuesday ATR, you have to wonder where other speed is going to come from here because if no one pressures Yield Bogey (5-1), he'll wire this. Swift Warrior (6-1) was last seen being beaten 2 lengths by Casino Host and Papaw Bodie in the G2 Muniz. What price would those two be in here? Nine O Wonderful (8-1) won the meet's first race closing into soft splits. Right One (3-1) is field's biggest earner and is lauded in Mike Welsch's Workout Report for :23.1 final quarter in last drill and spirited gallop-out..

Most Likely: #7 Right One 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Yield Bogey 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Swift Warrior 6-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Nine O Wonderful 8-1 5th


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice counterpoint to boy's version an hour earlier. Derby Eve (8-1) is out of the mare that in prior meetings with Tiznow produced Colonel John, Mr. Hot Stuff & Kayce Ace. Gets 2nd outing here and moves to the lawn where her full sister (that's Kayce Ace) excelled..

Best Value: #2 Derby Eve 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Magnificent Shirl 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Elusive Fate 6-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Sandsarita 15-1 3rd


8th: 8th P.G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top Tier Lass looks like your logical winner off sharp debut, but don't like reference from Welsch that she appeared rank in 8/23 drill. Too anxious in two turn debut? There are several potential emergers in here..

Most Likely: #3 Top Tier Lass 2-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Watsdachances 4-1 WON ($9.50)
Best Value: #9 Go Kitten Go 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Skyfall 12-1 7th


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Check for SCR's as I'm not sure #1 Gimme Credit (2-1) will go in this well-matched set. Major player obviously if he does..

Best Value: #12 Pervis 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Gimme Credit 2-1 WON ($4.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Short Shrift 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Wishingonadream 30-1 4th


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT

Yeesh. Tough sequence gets no help from this finale. Think I have to give She Be Bunny another chance. One of the few things Leparoux has done right of late is win on the front end..

Best Value: #7 She Be Bunny 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Raquel 5-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Comment 6-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Accent 10-1 7th


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-5
8: 3-6-7-9
9: 1-6-12
10: 1-2-7-8-9-10-11

2x4x3x7 = 168 x .50 = $84


Good luck!
Steve