Ground closed by winner in the Derby since '90

[Calzone Lord]

I'll Have Another closed 8 lengths according to the result charts.

Here is the amount of ground past winners have closed in there KY Derby wins -- and how they ran next time out.

Wire-to-wire to less than 5 lengths closed

* War Emblem (wire-to-wire) Won the Preakness next out and paid $7.60

* Go For Gin (head) 2nd by three-quarters of a length at 5/2 in Preakness next out.

* Funny Cide (2 lengths) Won the Preakness by 10 lengths and paid $5.80

* Smarty Jones (2.5 lengths) Won the Preakness by 11 lengths and paid $3.40

* Thunder Gulch (3.25 lengths) 3rd by three-quarter of a length at 7/2 odds. Subsequent Belmont and Travers winner.

* Charismatic (3.75 lengths) 1st by 1.5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $18.80 to win.

* Big Brown (4 lengths) 1st by 5 lengths in Preakness. Paid $2.40

* Barbaro (4 lengths) DNF in Preakness. Broke down.

* Silver Charm (4.25 lengths) 1st by a head in Preakness. Paid $8.20 to win.


Total next-out record of horses who closed less than 5 lengths in Derby victory. 9 starters - 6 winners - 1 second - 1 third. Of the three beaten next time out -- two were beaten by less than a length and Barbaro broke down. Avg win mutual is $7.70 and win percentage is 66.7%



5 lengths closed to 10 lengths closed

* Animal Kingdom (6.25 lengths) 2nd at 2/1 in Preakness.

* Lil E Tee (6.25 lengths) 5th at 4/1 in Preakness.

* Real Quiet (8 lengths) Won Preakness and paid $7.00

* Super Saver (8 lengths) 8th in Preakness at 9/5 odds


Total Next out record: 1-for-4 (25% wins) avg win price of $7.00



More than 10 lengths closed


* Strike The Gold (10.25 lengths) 6th at 9/5 odds in Preakness.

* Sea Hero (10.75 lengths) 5th by 8 lengths at 4/1 in Preakness

* Fusaichi Pegasus (12.5 lengths) 2nd by 4 lengths at 1/5 odds.

* Unbridled (13.25 lengths) 2nd by 2.5 lengths in the Preakness.

* Monarchos (16 lengths) 6th by 7.5 lengths at 2/1 odds in Preakness

* Giacomo (16.25 lengths) 3rd by 9.75 lengths at 6/1 odds in Preakness

* Grindstone (16.75 lengths) Never raced again

* Street Sense (19.5 lengths) 2nd by a head at 6/5 odds.

* Mine That Bird (21 lengths) 2nd by a length at 6/1 odds.


None of the nine horse won next out. They compiled a next out record of 8-0-4-1 with four beaten favorites. Grindstone did not race again.


Simple logic to this trend is that the Derby typically has more pace than the Preakness -- and is run at a slightly longer distance. If a horse can handle the Derby pace and still win...he's almost entirely free of red-flags in the Preakness. If a horse wins the Derby with a late rally ... he's probably not going to get that kind of setup unless someone decides to enter a Big Drama or Flying First Class.