Alpha-Ducking?

[Danzig]

but i really would like to know-how does one know when a horse is a legit contender who didn't quite get there, as opposed to a pretender who always tantalizes but never will get there in time? or is there a way?


edit-and yes, rollo, the list does show that the best on prep day isn't always best on derby day...but i'd like to know how to identify which horse might not be best on prep day, but will shine in ky? not every also-ran is the one.
and of course the list would be longer, which was also my point. people tend to jump from hot horse to hot horse-they can't all be the right one.
i've watched countless derby preps and derbies. sometimes i get the right one, more often not. but perhaps too much focus is placed on finding the one? it is only one race...