I would think he would have to win the Clark in dominant fashion to even register as a Horse of the Year finalist.
Even though she failed twice at 10fs this year -- Havre De Grace would be my choice for HoY.
She won her division nicely, she defeated males in the Woodward -- beating a next out easy Jockey Club Gold Cup winner over Drosselmeyer, and she crushed the soon to be champion 3yo filly Royal Delta a few weeks ago.
At less than 10fs -- Havre De Grace was 5-for-5, four Beyers of 105 or higher, and 3 Grade 1 wins in an absolutely awful year for males.
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