10/7: Keeneland (Opening Day; 3rd-10th)

[Kasept]

Took a sound beating at Belmont Thursday as poor decisions and jump up winners quashed virtually every attempt. The day's key price ideas -- Roses for the Star, Eternal Ruler and Scootles -- all ran decent races, but invariably fell short or were overhauled to finish 3rd, 3rd and 2nd respectively. P6 carried for another day to reach $103k, but opening card at Keeneland draws my primary attention. As if alluring scenarios at New York and Kentucky weren't enough, Santa Anita carried Thursday as well and has a $42k jackpot to start their sextet. Hope I didn't bury you too badly Thursday, and that we can score some on the challenging Keeneland opening slate to go into the big holiday weekend on the uptick!


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Mimi's Special Six 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Mutually Benefit 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Niji's Grand Girl 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Lily Again 4-1 6th


4th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ratoath Special 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Nina Fever 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Golden Phoenix 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Second Street City 5-2 WON ($8.80)


5th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very big SCR here with #3 Bet to Win opting out..

Best Value: #2 Ready to Unleash 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Banded 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Fan Out 3-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (.50 P5, P3, DD, Super)

Nice cast for this including return of Animal Kingdom half bro Thursby and maddening Saratoga disappointment Seve..

Best Value: #4 Golden Ticket 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Optionality 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Lively Sins 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #9 Seve 8-1 4th


7th: ALW/C, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Moryba 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Yankee Fortune 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Cherokee Artist 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Timbucto 30-1 7th


8th: 159th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Aikenite 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Cool Bullet 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Flashpoint 8-5 4th
Super Add: #4 Hoofit 15-1 WON ($25.60)


9th: 60th Alcibiades (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Eye-crossing assembly of baby girls with Biofuel sister Tu Endie Wei coming in as well-heralded filly to beat. Note Bernadini daughter Venetian Sonata is a full sister of emerging Indy Derby winner Wilburn, and Arnold trainee New Wave is a half to General Quarters..

Most Likely: #4 Tu Endie Wei 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Stephanie's Kitten 12-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #6 Egg Drop 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Puttthebabiesdown 12-1 3rd


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Pleasant Run 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 David D 10-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Sour 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Why Pretend 20-1 12th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Gutsy Call 5-1 WON ($12.40)


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 4-5
7: 4-8
8: 1-6-7
9: 4-7
10: 1-2-6-7-12

2x2x3x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-8
8: 1-6-7
9: 1-4-6-7
10: 1-2-6-7-12

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve