How's That Recovery Comin?

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The Fed’s report corroborates data yesterday showing New York-area manufacturing shrank in June and adds to evidence the economy’s slowdown extended through the second quarter. Unemployment above 9 percent makes it difficult for Americans to ramp up spending, helping explain why central bankers may keep the benchmark interest rate near zero into 2012.

“Economic data have taken a decided turn for the worse, manufacturing in particular,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. Job growth “is going to prove fairly disappointing,” he said, and that means “the consumer is not going to have enormous ammunition for spending.”