Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.