Derby Trail Next Start-Likely/Possible

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i disagree. a 3 yo graded winner should get consideration-especially over a 2 yo graded winner. last year shouldn't count towards this year. changing using 2 yo earnings would keep horses from coasting in come spring. horses that are handled as fragile hothouse flowers with two whole starts in the spring would no longer get in on races from seven and eight months prior.

While I don't necessarily agree with basing it on earnings (because any track can artificially inflate a purse), certainly I think recognizing 2yo races in some fashion is acceptable.

History says that its the horses with 2yo form, preferably graded form, that go on to compete successfully in the Triple Crown. There are few (eg Curlin, maybe Rock Hard Ten) exceptions to this.

At any rate, counting juvenile races on dirt is better than counting 3yo races on a different surface from the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom, Master of Hounds, and Brilliant Speed have combined to do absolutely zero on a dirt surface, yet have secured spots in the starting gate over horses that have.