1/19: Gulfstream (5th-9th)

[Kasept]

Have to say that Monday's sizeable hit at Gulfstream was gratifying for more reasons than just the obvious bankroll boost. For a week or so, I've been trying to gird punters, myself included, that had been frustrated over the first 10 days of the stand at Hallandale. Having an opinion that is far more right than wrong, and taking repeated beats despite the good view, takes its' toll on players' pockets and psyche. The latter is more taxing than the former. When you don't get rewarded for good handicapping or clever wagering, you invariably begin to question your approach from one standpoint, the other, or both. And then you're really lost...

I like to think that anyone who has observed my approach over the last 8-9 years knows that the quality hits come and make up for the short term shortfalls. Just three weeks ago I summarized 2010 by noting that I ended the year down close to $6,000. Results over the previous 100 hours saw that figure cut by more than 50% on the strength of Sunday's $600 AQU tri and $300 SA P4 and the $2,939 MLK Day P4 (GP) featuring Pat Biancone's $53 nightcap winner. Having a philosophy with parameters for wagering that works for you, and maintaining a steadfast belief in it and yourself continues to be the 'best angle' there is for a horseplayer. That isn't to say that being obstinate in the face of poor results is a winning approach... You always are growing and learning in this crazy hobby (or vocation), and work to be a better handicapper or wagerer. But as I discussed with Rich Eng on ATR right before the Christmas break, no one playing the races can win if they don't have supreme confidence in their own likelihood of success.

Without getting into a big discussion on takeout, the above 'philosophy' is probably the reason I don't buy the whole 'boycott' hubbub. I understand that the 'price' of wagering is too high and would like to see it lowered to the widespread benefit of everyone. But I've been generally successful playing horses for too long at this point to believe that the takeout prevents people from winning at the racetrack. I've come out ahead at the end of most years, and I'm not any more clever a pilot than anyone else trying to negotiate the rocky shoals of horseplay.

Monday, the Biancone horse Introvert was 20-1 on the morning line with a race expected to be on the turf. I was playing her on the grass for a variety of reasons anyway, but it came off the turf and was to be run over a track anticipated to be sloppy. By Smarty Jones, a very solid wet track sire (15%), Introvert was making her second career start, an area where Biancone excels (19% with 53 starters last 3 years; $3.16 ROI). She was also adding blinkers, which figured to put her into the race earlier on a notoriously fast surface, and was being ridden by a bug boy that provided a 5-7# weight break on the rest of the field. What was so magical about picking or using the horse at 20-1 on the morning line or adjusting to include her at the 26-1 she was at post time? As I wrote and said for a week, getting just one of these types home on occasion was going to justify sticking with your approach at challenging Gulfstream, and it felt great to be rewarded. It feels even better to point others towards bonanza returns. Hope you did well!


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


OFF THE TURF AGAIN TODAY


5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Wide open and very quirky-feeling affair and will make the P5 tremendously challenging given how many you likely need to use to survive the first leg..

Best Value: #10 Vow to Honor 8-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #5 Rosemont Drive 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Riggan 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Rhythm in May 12-1 10th

$1 Exacta (10-1) Paid $96.80


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-Off the Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Step Out Smartly 7th
Next Best: #2 R Vicarious Girl WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #13 One Hot Toddy 8th
Super Add: #6 Blackwell 4th


7th: FL-MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Heir to Dare 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Sola Gratia 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Truffles 15-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Gloomy I'm Knot 10-1 WON ($8.20)


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 10f-Off the Turf (DD, Super)

DRF Race of the Day..

Most Likely: #4 Harrods Creek WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #6 Karamanos 4th
Best Value: #12 Our Repent 6th
Super Add: #9 High Aspirations 3rd


9th: CLM, 4+, 1m-Off the Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #13 Fearless Eagle 2nd
Best Value: #14 Lunar Fleet 5th
Next Best: #1 Il Postino 7th
Super Add: #15 Quick Delivery WON ($5.20)


<$50 P5 Play:

5: 1-4-5-10
6: 2-10-13
7: 1-3-4-8
8: 4-6
9: 13

4x3x4x2x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

$.50 CENT Pick 5 (10-2-8-4-15) 4 Correct Paid $6.55


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-10-13
7: 1-3-4-8
8: 4-6-12
9: 1-13-14-15

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 P4 (2-8-4-15) Paid $77.25


Good luck!
Steve