9/25: Belmont (1st-10th): Philadelphia (PA Derby)

[Kasept]

Off to 5:00a launch of Hot Air Balloon Festival in Glens Falls... Will try to get changes up before first post!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Eagle Strike 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 The Truffle Man 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 B B Frank 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Super Add: #7 King Andrew 3-1 3rd


2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Elsie's Warrior 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Dirt Track Demon 10-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Komisarek 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Good to Be Me 5-1 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6/3rd-8 with 5/4th-6-8 with 2-4/WON-5-6-7-8 with ALL/2nd (2x2x4x6 = 96 x .10 = $9.60)

I can't figure out best structuring for these dime supers... Paid nearly 30-1.


3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Overlap 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Adams Circle 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Insightful 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Smooth Transition 4-1 WON ($9.70)


4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Gathering Cloud 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Capital Market 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Hybrid 10-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Avenging Spirit 6-1 5th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not much to go on here. #4 Uncle Carm has sib strength as a half to Leah's Secret, and #9 Caneros was dropped by the superb Kalookan Queen..

Best Value: #7 Backdown 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 City Cool 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Uncle Carm 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Leave of Absence 5-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-5-6-7-8
3: 2-7
4: 7
5: 3-4-5-7-9-11

6x2x1x6 = $72


6th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Lemon Spice 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Uwannapieceofthis 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Stevil 4-1 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #3 Conservative 15-1 4th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Screenplay 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Rigby 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Hasten to Be King 8-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Shimmering Forest 3-1 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Will really miss these and NY bred turf ALW's when lawn season ends. They've been the bread and butter score opps of the whole summer. Yes they have them in Florida, California and New Orleans, but the NY versions have been highly lucrative this annum as the 'right' price plays have made themselves at least partially evident on a regular basis..

Most Likely: #9 Pretty Boy Freud 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cherokee Speed 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Devon Rock 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Hammock 10-1 9th


9th: 17th Gallant Bloom (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Anticipate the SCR of #3 First Passage..

Best Value: #4 Qualia 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Sara Louise 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Rapport 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Moontune Missy 8-1 2nd


10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Beresford 4-1 10th
Best Value: #1 Empty Handed 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tigresco 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Super Add: #12 Bold Vindication 5-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 3-4-9
9: 2-4
10: 2/SCR-9

6x3x2x2 = #72



PHILADELPHIA PARK (PARX)


POST-SCRATCHES


11th: Pennsylvania Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f

Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #3 Afleet Again 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 First Dude 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Exhi 5-2 4th


Good luck!
Steve