Jockey % Question?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by LOSE=GLUE

IF you took say Prado, Gomez, and Velazquez and they are each hitting at over a 20% clip and their in the money % is over 50% wouldn't this mean that 60% of the time when all 3 are in 1 race one of them is gonna win? Also for tri's and ex boxes looks like the % are in the players favor based upon the odds but watching Prado and Gomez ride today with Johnny V taking the day off it doesn't matter their odds one of them is usally winning.

Same rules would apply to Nakatani Espinoza and Solis on the West

If 3 riders win at a 20% rate, and they are all in the same race together, and we assume the odds of the mounts are always the same ( thus every one is actually 20% to win ) then the chances that none of them win is .8 x .8 x .8, in theory only, which is 51.2% of the time. So, in this case, one of them will win 48.8% of the time.

However, their actual odds are more reflective, as every situation is NOT the same. Suppose for whatever reason they are all riding horses at roughly 8-1...clearly they are not nearly as likely to be successful at if at least 2 of them are under 5-2.