11/6-7 (OSA): 26th Breeders' Cup Selections/Analysis

[Kasept]

With preparations complete, attentions turn to wagering strategies for Cup Weekend. Before that, a review of last year is yet again in order. It's noteworthy I think, that favorites in 2008 exited the Cup 14/4-3-2-3. Only Sixties Icon (Marathon) and Well Armed (Dirt Mile) failed to get into the superfecta among horses that left the gate as the public choice. In addition, an assorted combination of at least two of the first, second and/or third choices were in supers in 9 of the 14 Cup events, and in the trifecta an astounding 7 times in the 14 races.

In other words, don't be so quick to blanket assume that the Cup is a bomb-in-every-slot free for all, because in many instances, keying off well bet candidates that have high expectations for success can be highly profitable. When 5-1 third choice Forever Together and 7-2 second choice Wait a While sandwiched 49-1 Sealy Hill in the 2008 Filly and Mare Turf, the tri came back $996 for $1. Also enforcing the "it only takes one price horse" theory, was the Early P4 on Cup Saturday. Players who had Desert Code in the Turf Sprint at 36-1, only needed to find 6-1 Albertus Maximus, 3-2 Goldikova and 7-2 Midshipman to cash for $6,300.

Super fans should also take note of the bonus payouts when short prices fill the top slots and a bomb anchors the quad. Donativum ($5.80), Westphalia ($3.30) and Coronet of a Baron ($6.20) were 1-2-3 in the Juvenile Turf last year for a modest $153 triple. But including 29-1 City Style as your 4th resulted in a $3,025 superfecta for $1. Similarly, the three most obvious horses in the '08 Filly & Mare Sprint -- Ventura, Indian Blessing, Zaftig -- brought back $48 as a tri but $733 with not-hard-to-fathom Miraculous Miss (38-1) fourth.

So, in advance of Friday and Saturday's cornucopia of wagering, be sure to remember that the "best" horses are still going to heavily factor in many slots of each of the Cup exotics... Sprinkle in plenty of pricey longshots that you believe are going to run well, and you should be able to catch the one or two bonanza payoffs that make Breeders' Cup Weekend profitable and fun. Remember not to get down on yourself if you miss early. It's a long two days with tons of opportunities. And if things don't go great, the Gr. II Las Palmas nightcap Friday is an appealing 'get out' chance!

I hope you've been enjoying At the Races coverage from Santa Anita, and have a great Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup!


BREEDERS' CUP - OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Punisher 5-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Deal Breaker 8-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Joshua's Dream 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 On Fire 9-2 3rd


2nd: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Miss McCall 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 She's Very Rare 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Halfaponderosa 12-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Barbara's Love 9-2 4th


3rd: 2nd Breeders' Cup Marathon, 3+, 14f (P6, P3, Jockey Challenge, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Father Time 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Cloudy's Knight 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Nite Light 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Man of Iron 8-1 WON


4th: 2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Coolmore Euro Lillie Langtry has starlet look and moniker, but doesn't strike fear either. Adored Romans' Tapitsfly from first glance this summer, and she's done nothing wrong here, but Pletcher-Pompa Speightstown miss has best chance if 7th and 8th panel suits. Shuman bomb Potosina looks versatile and ran top flight race over tough tundra and figures to save ground all the way..

Most Likely: #4 Rose Catherine 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Tapitsfly 8-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Lillie Langtry 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Potosina 20-1 7th


<$100 P4 Play:

1: 5-6-7-9
2: 2-11
3: 3-4-5-9
4: 4-8-10

4x2x4x3 = $96

$1 Pick 4 (6-11-9-10) 4 Correct Paid $3,450.50


5th: 26th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the weekend's most interesting races as well as a juicy wagerfest. Want to use everyone exiting the Alcibiades and Breen-Hall filly Bickersons who looks like she may explode every time she steps foot on the track. Looking ahead, division has makings of some serious competition as this entire group looks like a roomful of Tri Delts after you've knocked back 3-4 frosties..

Most Likely: #4 Beautician 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bickersons 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Negligee 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 She Be Wild 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Zilva 30-1 7th


6th: 11th Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Amazing day of opportunities continue for Augustin Stables (George Strawbridge Jr.) as another defending Cup winner tries for a repeat. She has been more beatable this season though, and enigmatic Mott mare DYNAFORCE merits respect while offering value. Juddmonte, who wins this event like clockwork, sends solid pair as well..

Most Likely: #2 Forever Together 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Dynaforce 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Midday 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Visit 10-1 4th


7th: 3rd Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Short but nice cast facing the defending champ who comes into this as good or better than a year ago. Would be a wonderful tonic for the ailing Bobby Frankel..

Most Likely: #9 VENTURA 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sara Louise 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Informed Decision 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Seventh Street 4-1 8th


8th: 26th Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Classic-Distaff Double, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Admit that this race has grown more confusing for me as the week has worn on. Careless Jewel, whom I offered up for one of the year's best scores this year in the Delaware Oaks and whom I anticipated as being imposing here, appears vulnerable on several fronts..

Most Likely: #7 Music Note 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Careless Jewel 2-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Cocoa Beach 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lethal Heat 20-1 7th
High 5 Play: #2 Life Is Sweet 8-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-5-8-10
6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7

4x3x3x2 = $96


9th: 40th Las Palmas (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Wonderful coda to exciting day with 20-1 Drysdale filly singing like a mermaid to Argonauts..

Best Value: #4 Cat by the Tale 20-1 3rd
Most Likely: #9 Quiet Meadow 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Closeout 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Teamgeist 8-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7
9: 3-4-6-9

3x3x2x4 = $72



Hope everyone got a piece of what turned out to be one of the best Breeders' Cup days I've ever had. Early double in non-Cup events gave great start to the day leading to opening P3 ($421). That was followed by weekend-making P4 of $3,450 ($1). Overlays on Tapitsfly, (whom our clocker guests raved about), and She Be Wild were instrumental in the success over the first half of the card. $641 for the 2nd-4th P3 was a huge plus, and came in advance of another $1,500+ in troikas. ($950/3rd-5th; $423/4th-6th; $176/5th-7th).

Streak was stopped in the Distaff, a race in which I was honestly confused, but it hardly dented the solid negotiation of the day's offerings. Day Two looks and feels 'tougher' than today's card, so I feel fortunate to have built an early cushion. Hope you did great Friday and enjoyed the week's coverage.


BREEDERS' CUP - OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: 2nd Damascus, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 M One Rifle 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Dave's Pacemaker 15-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Coronet of a Baron 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Viscount 8-1 5th


2nd: 3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G2), 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Draw severely compromises standout Pletcher colt Interactif, but he may be good enough anyway under trip-making Kent D.. Suggest using any price horse you like even remotely in exotics as there are several here that have bottom wrung potential at insane prices including Zip Quick and Gallant Gent..

Most Likely: #11 Interactif 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Viscount Nelson 6-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Zip Quick 50-1 11th
Exotics Use: #5 Gallant Gent 30-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Bridgetown 8-1 2nd


3rd: 2nd Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, 3+, 6.5f-DHT (P3, DD, Super)

Probably doubtful that Mig can get the same dream trip down the hill again, but at 20-1 or so, Desert Code is in as good a position as any to capitalize on opportunity.. Maragh, who does everything right and is simply America's best young rider, cleverly arrived in CA early and took two mounts down the hill course to be ready for Diamondrella's try..

Best Value: #13 Desert Code 20-1 13th
Most Likely: #9 Diamondrella 4-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Lord Shanakill 8-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Noble Court 8-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Gotta Have Her 15-1 2nd


4th: 26th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Capt. Candyman Can 15-1 8th
Most Likely: #1 Zensational 7-5 5th
Next Best: #5 Gayego 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Fatal Bullet 9-2 6th


5th: 26th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Will take same tact here as in gal edition, favoring KEE exiting runners including bonus mutuel Piscatelli who gets Desormeaux and comfy ground-saving launch spot. In terms of first time synthetic horses, suggest D' Funnybone be protected in multi-race wagers while plus Tale of the Cat progeny Aspire is too big a price to not use within the race..

Most Likely: #9 Aikenite 8-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Lookin at Lucky 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Piscitelli 50-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Noble's Promise 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Aspire 20-1 12th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-11
3: 1-9-13
4: 1-8
5: 2-4-5-8-9-13

2x3x2x6 = $72


6th: 26th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Zacinto 8-1 11th
Best Value: #10 Justenuffhumor 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Goldikova 8-5 WON
Super Add: #7 Ferneley 20-1 7th


7th: 3rd Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Mastercraftsman 6-5 4th
Best Value: #8 Mr. Sidney 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Midshipman 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Furthest Land 20-1 WON


8th: 26th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Conduit 7-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Spanish Moon 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Telling 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Precious Passion 4-1 2nd


9th: 26th Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super, Super High 5)

Fascinating edition of this race as turf/synth runners are clearly the best approach with top three below proven over the surface and sure to get their runs in. Exception in my mind may be Quality Road whom I'll guess takes to the surface being by Raven's Pass sire Elusive Quality out of a Strawberry Road mare. Supremely fast, classy and sure to be overlaid, Pletcher trainee will have first run on the leaders..

Most Likely: #8 Einstein 12-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Richard's Kid 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Zenyatta 5-2 WON
Super Add: #12 GATE SCR


<$100 P4 Play:

6: 7-8-10-11
7: 1
8: 1-2-6-7-8
9: 4-6-7-8-12

4x1x5x5 = $100


10th: 40th Oak Tree Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Battle of Hastings 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Rendezvous 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Massone 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Meteore 8-1 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-8
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 4-6-8
10: 7-9

3x4x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve