2009 Breeders' Cup

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I was saying that if you were asking a horse who's an outsider to step up and run big in a race like this off of one MSW race then the value would probably be there.

Yeah, the value would be there if you mean big odds ... but so would a less than sensational race ... and such a horse would have no shot at big odds.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basically I was saying that there will be no value on Connie and Michael anywhere, at least to me, because the likelihood of her duplicating that effort is low. I think she's more likely to bomb.

She is more likely than not to bomb .... but she is also more likely to win than her projected closing odds will indicate.

I have her as a possible big overlay to win and a possible huge underlay to finish underneath in exotics.

The opposite of how a horse like a Perfect Drift or Dynever was often a big underlay to win and an overlay to finish underneath.

Anyone that uses her in the 3rd or 4th slot in exotics is a fool. Anyone that denies her extreme once-a-year like debut talent is also being extremely foolish.