How good is Lava Man?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What are you thinking? How many races has the horse won in a row? He's the best horse by far on the west coast right now. When you have a horse that is absolutely dominant on the west coast, they are almost always competitive with the east coast horses. Not only have some of his races been visually impressive, but look at the numbers he has run over the last 1 1/2 years. I'm not big on speed figures but when a horse looks like a great horse and the numbers confirm it, there's really no reason to doubt the horse. The horse has run some incredible races. His last two races weren't that great but at least he's still winning. Barbaro's win in the Florida derby was not particularly impressive but I still knew it would be a mistake to underestimate him becuase he kept winning.

If you would be stunned to see LM hit the board, then you must have been stunned by Stevie Wonderboy, The Tin Man, and most horses that have gone back east and won. LM has certainly been as impressive as any of the west coast horses that have been able to win back east.

I'm not saying the horse will win. I don't know for sure that he can run as well on the road. Not only that, he's had a lot of races this year. Even if he does run his best, he may not be as good as Bernardini. It's hard to tell.

I think running outside of California is a major if for this horse. I never said he hasn't run a number of terrific races ( my qualifications for using the word " great " differ significantly from many others ) though I'm not sure how many of his races I would term " incredible " , but my off-hand guess would be none.

I don't know California racing very well, so I don't really know the trainers' reputations, though I seem to remember Doug O'Neill ( he is Lava Man's trainer, right? ) getting into some trouble in the not so recent past. Perhaps that trouble is completely unrelated to Lava Man's ascent from claimer to Horse of the Year candidate, I certainly hope so, but I know that many NY cheaters don't enjoy the same success on the road that they do at home ( unless they go to that Den of Iniquity known as Delaware Park where even Wyatt Earp would be defenseless ).

I actually like Lava Man, he has danced many dances, and danced them well. He won on the turf and dirt. He's a throw back. I just think Bernardini is superior to him and his on the pace running style may work against him in a way that it hasn't in California.