When Horses That Can't Win.....Do

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Nice post. If I may ask, what is your opinion on the Lukas winner at Toga today. Not so much the fact that the horse won, but the way the race was run.

Serling was all over this one, btw.

Compare it to R5 (MSW) on the inner at 8F: in that one, 3 of the 4 splits were under 24 seconds and one was just over; for R8, 3 of the 4 splits were over 24 seconds and one was just under.

What's interesting is that Luzzi can typically be counted on to do the wrong thing, typically move to soon or rush his mount, but in this case he didn't. He actually timed his move about as well as anyone would expect. The only way it's better (for him) is if he goes after the leader late stretch and ensures that he gets 2nd if he can't go by. But having it all his own way in slow fractions pretty much made the winner unbeatable. Had Luzzi ridden to form and gone after him on the turn (or hooked him earlier) the race collapses. Of course, Luzzi didn't learn from the experience (or viewed it negatively) and he was back to his rushing antics in the finale.

How does anyone account for all this stuff? It's not like you're trying to think along with a deep, rational thinker.