Belmont allowance lost in the shuffle

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This was not a race that fell apart late. Treat Gently ran over the top of the field despite the slow pace.

Having the lead is not necessarily a huge disadvantage. It all depends upon race dynamics and distribution of energy; these principles apply in a sport such as track and field (in which I competed) just as they do in horse racing. Why else is that horses that are uncontested on loose leads are so dangerous in races? I'd put them at an advantage, not a disadvantage.

If those behind them are drafting and move in a timely fashion, rather than prematurely, which is the norm, then the front runner will always be at a disadvantage. Check out the daily results over at the Tour de France. And, actually, the race did kind of fall apart. It was very nearly a 'wipe-out'. I do agree, however, that race dynamics trump 'fast' or 'slow' pace just about every time. But old habits are hard to break.