Why It's Silly To Play Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda

I was thinking about the Bellamy Road thread ... where we were discussing whether or not talented horses who run a few brilliant races ... like Bellamy Road, Landaluce, Hoist The Flag, and many others ... can ever be considered "great."

My viewpoint is a resounding "No" ... but others said "Maybe" or "Yes."

But I've thought of a good example which strengthens my point ... Honest Pleasure.

He was an outstanding 2YO champion in 1975. He came out as a 3YO and was dazzling ... beyond dazzling. He won his first start at 7f by 14 lengths ... then won the G1 Flamingo by 11 easy lengths ... running the 9f faster than the legendary 1957 renewal featuring Bold Ruler, Gen Duke and Iron Liege. (I remember Honest Pleasure's race as thought it were yesterday ... what a performance!) He then won the G1 Florida Derby by 3 lengths ... with "speed to spare."

Suppose his career ended there ... outstanding 2YO champion ... dazzling winner of his first four starts as a 3YO ... eight straight wins ... including 5 G1's and a G2 ... with the last seven being with the greatest of ease ... would there be some today who would say he was "great" ... that he was one of the all-time best? Undoubtedly. Beyond undoubtedly ... certainly. And you know who you are.

But look at what actually happened ... Honest Pleasure won only one of his last nine starts as a 3YO ... and one of four as a 4YO ... 2 out of 13 overall.

And there was not a thing physically wrong with him ... because his one subsequent victory as a 3YO was a solid score in the Travers ... and he also lost that memorable photo to Forego in the 10f Marlboro Cup while receiving 18 pounds.

He was a high-quality colt who almost always won ... over any distance ... when he could make the early lead ... but who almost always lost ... over any distance ... when he was challenged.

Through April of his 3YO year ... he had compiled one of the greatest records ... ever ... up to that point ... but ... it was downhill from there.

Can anyone seriously argue then ... with an air of certitude ... what Landaluce, Hoist The Flag, Graustark, Sir Gaylord, Bellamy Road ... or any other talented horse whose career was cut short ... "woulda" done ... or "coulda" done?

That's why I say ... woulda/coulda/shoulda doesn't count for anything ... and only what actually happens in real, contested races does.

End of case.