I see big gaps back to 3rd.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's statistics not math.

I know. I'm a statistics guy (as you know already) and my 50% number was generated in the exact same fashion as yours- I just saved everyone the mundane details. Glad we're thinking on the same line of reasoning.

Here's a good follow up question. If one of them complete the exacta, does it pay over $150? I'll venture a guess that the QR/IWR exacta box is in the $60 neighborhood and anything involving the 5th choice or higher underneath is $150 or better.