Clearly these odds have no bearing on Vegas' actual feelings of who will make it out of the AFC. There is NO WAY Tennessee should be 3/1 and SD 9/2 at this point. The probability of SD (a) winning enough games to be better than a 4 seed and (b) running the table in the playoffs are much, much lower than 9/2 at this point, when compared to a team at 7-0 who is a virtual lock to make the playoffs and less than even money to get a protected seed. Perhaps my original line of 4/5 was a bit low but i'd still make them less than 2/1.
My guess is they were overloaded on SD early and are keeping the line low to discourage fliers at what really should be 10-1 or higher.
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10-28-2008, 10:56 AM
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