9/5: Belmont (Fall Meet Opener)

[Kasept]

With Saratoga in the rear view mirror, figuratively anyway, the Belmont Fall Championship Meet arrives and is always welcome. As I believe I opined last year, these 8 weeks are as good as Saratoga, and in many ways better, if you are adept at capping Elmont's elongated one-turn routes.

I enjoyed the strongest Saratoga I've ever had as a horseplayer, though as chronicled, the results of the first 21 days of the meet were far better than the remaining 15 when the bulk of the challenging full field turf racing took place. Will wade into the Belmont opener today with some strong individual race interest in advance of a big stakes Saturday at Sandy and a weekend featuring important action at Delaware, Arlington, Turfway, Calder and Woodbine.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

PASS


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Fascinating 7 horse field featuring babies from Baffert, KMc, Zito, Shug and J. Jerkens among others, with firsters by Speightstown, Distorted Humor, Toccet and Unbridled's Song lined up..

Best Value: #4 Prince Charming 6-1: Jerkens deadly 2nd out.. 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Celestial Diamond 2-1: $700k KMc W. Pointer tries again.. 6th
Next Best: #1 Ventana 5-2: Baffert babies usually ready for debuts.. WON
Exotics Use: #3 Speight of Hand 8-1: Young trainer Brown 'winning early'.. 3rd

$1 Trifecta (1-4-3) Paid $160.75
$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $35.75


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Les Grands Trois 3-1: Frankel-Live Oak colt gets pace set up.. 3rd
Best Value: #1 Like Now 5-1: Either POE capable on best.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Fearless Vision 5-1: Bounce back candidate on cutback.. 6th


4th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Looking for prices in good betting heat, and fear Tagg's Ned Evans' homebred firster (#3 Sovereign Fund) more than favored Mott entry..

Most Likely: #10 Invisible Star 6-1: Inky get excel in lawn routes.. 9th
Best Value: #5 Precious Beans 8-1: Romans' Md'O saw grass bow washed off.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Insider 5-1: Kelly-Dizney red exits same off-turf affair.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Ain't No Star 15-1: Flyer on Ritvo bay; Sire 26%+ with turf 1sters.. 12th


5th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Five Towns 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Can't Refuse 20-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Posted 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Executive Search 20-1 19th


<$75 P4 Play:

Very difficult sequence, but worth playing with especially big prices possible in 2nd half of the Quad..

2: 2-4
3: 1-7
4: 3-5-10
5: 1-3-5-6-7-9

2x2x3x6 = $72


6th: CLM/N2L, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Gold Deputy 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Unbridled Wish 15-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Hepcat 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 East End Boy 15-1 8th


7th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9fIT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ranger James 5-2: Logical; First 2 showed promise.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Alpha Dancer 7-2: Excuse off turf fiasco.. 9th
Best Value: #7 Sir Cryptonite 15-1: Galloping Grocer sib always close.. 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Cops Fever 2-1: Back to lawn after rain pain; Loses ground.. 3rd


8th: The Positive Gal, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Diamondrella 5-2: Prefer Penna miss to ML fave.. WON
Best Value: #4 Taletobetold 4-1: Hard used early last.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Stormy West 2-1: Solid if unspectacular.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Solarana 6-1: Hough mare has faced nice ones..


9th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 9-2 WON
Next Best: #10 No Lien Here 2-1
Best Value: #7 Sir Sapphire 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Fortissi More 12-1 2nd


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 2-6-7-10
8: 1-4-6-8
9: 1-7-10

1x4x4x3 = $48


Good luck!
Steve