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#2
05-09-2008, 11:42 AM
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Are the # starters/race stats holding up this year vs last in California or at Keeneland? I'd be surprised. To me, the proof is in the betting. I read a few days ago that Keeneland's average daily all-sources handle was down 12%. Santa Anita was down. Aqueduct was up 3-4% and had purse increases. Oaklawn was up as well. Of the bigger dirt meets, only Gulfstream was down (The Stronach Effect?).
Maybe it was the weather (or maybe '07 had more big carryover days) but when Keeneland Spring is down double digits, that says a lot. Finally, Keeneland's percentage of winning favorites on the main track for the meet was 24% which is far below average and lower than the 29% of 2007. In spring of 2006 - the last year of dirt - the percentage of winning favorites on the main was 34%. I'm no big chalk fan but to me that means the surface is increasingly unpredictable. And when bettors move from playing Keeneland to Aqueduct in April, that says a lot too. Hollywood's winning favorite % looks about right and I think they've had good weather so far. But if there is any weather involved, the synthetics are unpredictably unplayable and not just for the days or days after it rains. A Jockey Clubs report showed fatalities for synthetics are down vs dirt .... 1.5/per 1,000 starts for synthetics vs 2.0/per 1,000 starts for dirt. That's certainly a good thing But like the article said, who knows how many are going down in training? http://www.kentucky.com/232/story/396504.html 
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