4/5: AQU; SA; IL Derby; Ashland

[Kasept]

As big, and as important a day of racing, as there is on the calendar... Off to Aqueduct early.. Enjoy the intense action that will help go a long way towards setting up the Kentucky Derby starting grid...


AQUEDUCT


6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Lucky Island 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 My Golden Opinion 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Asmussen entry 3-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #9 SCR

$2 Exacta (7-3) Paid $23.20
$2 Trifecta (7-3-1) Paid $58.00


7th: 48th Bay Shore (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f ($400k All-Stakes P4, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Gattopardo 3-1: Tullock's LRL: invader fast, sharp, tough.. 2nd
Best Value: #7 Jockey Ridge 6-1: Tagg bay has misfired just once; Adds Edgar.. 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 SCR


8th: 96th Excelsior H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Wafi City 3-1: Anything near last takes this.. 6th
Best Value: #5 Temporary Saint 12-1: Bona fide Levine-Moss claim.. WON
Next Best: #2 Magna Graduate 9-2: Ignore blinker flop of defending champ.. 4th
Exotics Add: #6 Naughty New Yorker 6-1: Comfortable on the main, wet.. 5th


9th: 84th Wood Memorial (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

2. Texas Wildcatter (Coa/Pletcher) 5-1: Deserved Gotham win; Coa plus on forward-moving stalker..

3. Spurrier (Elliott/Pletcher) 15-1: Late nom steady developer; Class testee OK super filler..

1. Court Vision (Gomez/Mott) 6-1: 3rd Don't over-estimate Gomez factor; Must go now..

4. First Commandment (Luzzi/Martin, C.) 30-1: Connections taking swing on now colt; 9f a plus..

5. War Pass (Velasquez, C./Zito) 6-5: 2nd Eyes on champ off Tampa fiasco; Expect better but going against..

6. Roman Emperor (Rose/Klesaris) 15-1: Doffs goggles; Needs firm footing for best shot; Will like trip..

7. Giant Moon (Chavez/Schosberg) 12-1: 4th Bay hated Gotham slop, shut down early; Pace against him..

8. Tale of Ekati (Prado/Tagg) 9-2: WON Shows identical pattern as Nobiz last year; Logical inclusion..

1A. Inner Light (Lopez/Mott) 6-1: IEAH sacrifices nice colt as rabbit for Vision; CC will send..

9. Anak Nakal (Garcia/Zito) 20-1: Finds third venue this annum; Add blinks and needs form reversal..


SELECTIONS:

1. #2 Texas Wildcatter 8th
2. #8 Tale of Ekati WON
3. #5 War Pass 2nd
4. #6 Roman Emperor 7th

$2 Exacta (8-5) Paid $52.50


10th: 108th Carter H. (Gr. I), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Spring at Last 5-2: Gomez poised turning back Donn winner.. 8th
Best Value: #5 Ryan's for Real 15-1: Dangerous on best with move to Capuano.. 7th
Next Best: #9 Bustin Stones 3-1: Will be underlay; Up against heavy pace pressure.. WON
Exotics Add: #2 King of the Roxy 8-1: Honest overachiever 2nd/break.. 6th

$1 P3 $603.50


<$50 All-Stakes P4:

7: 2-3-7-8
8: 1-2-5-9
9: 2-5-8
10: 6

4x4x3x1 = $48


11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Motor Patrol 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 El Tamberito 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Coop to the Hoop 7-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 Tribolet 4-1 6th

$2 Pick 3 (8-9-9) 3 Correct Paid $223.50
$2 Exacta (9-8) Paid $22.00
$2 Trifecta (9-8-3) Paid $66.00


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-3-7-9
7: 3-7
8: 5-9
9: 2-5-8
10: 6
11: 3-9

4x2x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192



GULFSTREAM


8th: Pan American (Gr. II), 4+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Drilling for Oil 4-1: McPeek left him in FL for this.. 2nd
Best Value: #7 French Vintage 6-1: Now with Serpe; Needs pace target.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Fracas 5-2: Arrived too late in Munoz & Tagg adds blinks.. 7th
Exotics Add: #8 Precious Passion 6-1: Hartmann red was used strangely last.. WON

$2 Exacta (8-1) Paid $166.00


KEENELAND


9th: Ashland (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Proud Spell 8-5: Jones miss has exuded class from start; Poly the lone issue.. 3rd
Best Value: #4 Bsharpsonata 5-1: Salzman bay proving tough and versatile.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Country Star 9-5: Had better be ready for fight in return; Underlaid.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Little Belle 6-1: KMc's Darley homebred by AP Indy better with each run.. WON

$2 Exacta (2-4) Paid $177.40
$2 Trifecta (2-4-5) Paid $454.00



HAWTHORNE


7th: Illinois Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Denis of Cork 2-1: Yanked about by 'advisors', perfect colt tuning for Kentucky.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Atoned 4-1: Pletcher bringing sophs back slowly; Main threat.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Real Appeal 8-1: Amoss upset KEE opener stake Friday; A 'now' horse.. 7th
Exotics Add: #6 Golden Spikes 5-1: Alternating efforts and can nurse front end.. 2nd



OAKLAWN

10th: 62nd Oaklawn H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f (

Most Likely: #5 Circular Quay 3-1: Fired HOL bullet readying for this.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Silver Lord 12-1: Borel climbs on after Lanerie couldn't stay aboard.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Heatseeker 2-1: Poly-turfer looks underlaid on quirky Arky strip.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Tiago 7-2: Gets pace to chase; Last saw fast dirt in '07 Belmont.. WON



SANTA ANITA


4th: 26th Potrero Grande (Gr. II), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Surf Cat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 El Roblar 4-1 3rd
Next Best #5 Greg's Gold 7-2 WON

$2 Exacta (5-4) Paid $17.20
$2 Trifecta (5-4-1) Paid $60.40


5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Forest Danz 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Saxophone 12-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Trail Mix 12-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #12 Chadlington 8-1 9th


6th: 71st Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

1. Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 4-1: 4th OK 3rd in LA, adds blinks, saves ground in acid test; Include in exotics..

2. Signature Move (Baze M/Guillot) 30-1: Bad 10th in LA, working well for return; Needs speed boost..

3. Coast Guard (Talamo/Hofmans) 20-1: 3rd Hated Ess Eff going from first jump; Looks fit, sharp back home..

4. Bob Black Jack (Migliore/Kasparoff) 6-1: 2nd Trainer audibled staying home; Too much pace pressure here though..

5. Colonel John (Nakatani/Harty) 2-1: WON Defacto West Coast soph leader gets tune up for Lu'ville; Tactical..

6. On the Virg (Baze T/Pletcher) 15-1: Pletcher Pulpit red on upswing and hits board with forward progress..

7. Shore Do (Sutherland/Koriner) 20-1: Looked like something as juvy; Has not progressed a step..

8. El Gato Malo (Flores/Dollase C) 5-2: Adeptly handled by Dollase thus far; Backed up a bit in 9f Sham..

9. Polonius (Espinoza/Pender) 10-1: Sprint-bred bay was super acing mile turf stake last; Exotics bottom feeder?

10. Meetingwithdestiny (Rosario/O'Neill) 30-1: O'Neill gelding diploma-ed 6th career start; Appears overmatched..

11. Rosso Corsa (Quinonez/Vienna) 50-1: Recent Cal-bred MCLM winner here for no good apparent reason..


SELECTIONS:

1. #5 Colonel John WON
2. #8 El Gato Malo 5th
3. #3 Coast Guard 3rd
4. #6 On the Virg 6th


7th: 49th Arcadia (Gr. II), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Daytona 7-5 WON
Best Value: #5 Golden Balls 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Artiste Royale 3-1 4th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Premium Quality 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Holy Humor 30-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Tangled Tango 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #5 El Legado 4-1 5th

$2 Exacta (11-9) Paid $51.00


9th: 28th Providencia (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 THEODORA 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Missit 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Gorgeous Goose 7-2 4th
Exotics Add: #10 Starry Pursuit 6-1 8th


10th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Albertus Maximus 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Paul's Hope 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Euroglide 7-2 5th


11th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Gentle Gale 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wonderous Event 12-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Ransom Captive 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #10 Lemon Chiffon 5-1 4th
Hi 5 Play: #7 Tutta Bella 6-1 WON

$2 Exacta (7-11) Paid $39.80
$1 Trifecta (7-11-9) Paid $192.40


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 5-8
7: 3-4-5
8: 1-9
9: 4-5
10: 6
11: 3-9-10-11

2x3x2x2x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192



SAM HOUSTON


7th: Connally Turf H. (Gr. II), 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Going Ballistic 7-2
Best Value: #3 Scrappy Roo 8-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Student Council 3-1

$2 Exacta (3-6) Paid $72.00


Good luck!
Steve