The case for why Pyro is the most likely Derby winner right now

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not that you said it, in fact you intentionally avoided it, but War Pass was loose on the lead because he outran his speedy opposition with exceptionally fast fractions. His half in the BC was a full second faster than the lightning quick Indian Blessing. It's hardly surprising that Pyro was able to gain on him in the last quarter of those races....in fact it would have been embarrassing if he couldn't. None of his closes were particularly exceptional. In fact one could argue that he was the only one running after War Pass had done the dirty work of intimidating all the speed horses.

Besides for War Pass - I said before the race I thought the field had the look of a fairly paceless race. Globalization (who failed a couple times in maiden sprints) and Salute the Sarge (who simply is a consistant stalker-to-mid-pack type) were 2nd and 3rd.

The fast fractions were more a product of a keen and aggressive War Pass, and the horses behind him had to be used some to keep him from getting too loose in the Monmouth slop.

You know it's far more common in slop than dirt for superior speed horses to carve solid fractions and still outfinish everyone else. If you take Pyro out of the race, War Pass turns his 2.5 length lead after a half mile into a 16.75 length margin of victory over everyone else.

Obviously I know War Pass was clearly the better 2yo - but my point was based on projections Pyro is the most likely Derby winner.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And thanks for pointing out the different ways that Assmussen and Zito are bringing these horses along. Considering Assmussen's mantel full of KY Derby trophies, along with Zito's total lack of success in the race, it's a wonder Nick isn't trying to emulate Steve's style.

You seem to have missed the point.

Basically, I think the Champagne was Zito's big goal with War Pass. The four straight fast bullet works in Sep leading into the race suggested he wanted to leave nothing on the table.

In Pyro's case, he's done everything without being asked to do much of anything in his slow works.

Somehow you managed to turn that into 'well who has won more Derby's?'