Monday Gulftstream 1 bet

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Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let me take a few minutes here.

I can only speak for myself but I certainly didn't become educated by today's events. And, this isn't because I'm an IDIOT, though there are some who probably would argue that point.

I have a process by which I formulate an opinion. There are certain things I look for when handicapping a race or identifying a horse as a betback. Let's look at the positives and negatives of the winner.

Positives: apparently, the trainer LOVED him.

Negatives: POOR figs; unimpressive trip; beat a weak bunch ---so, failed the CLASS test.

But let's break this down a bit further.

1) As I basically feel that most trainers, like most jockeys, are idiots, I basically could care less what a given trainer thinks before a race. While I respect Mott more than most, I've worked on the backstrech and I know all about how many trainers LOVE their horse in a given race.

2) Now, I'm a trip handicapper but what distinguishes me from most is that I pay almost ZERO attention to numbers. In most cases, I could really care less how FAST a horse runs. In this case, however, even I couldn't ignore the fact that the horse ran RIDICULOUSLY slow for the distance, for that day.

2) While the horse was carried wide the 1st turn, it needed to be pushed the entire length of the backstretch to get to contention, then finished in pretty sorry looking stride to just get up, while being beaten up. Compare this with the very impressive last race of Aquarian, who was blocked behind horses in the stretch, swung outside of them, and once hit by the jock, exploded with a late run to make up a significant bit of ground and just get up. Or, even the effort by Mambo Meister, who had significant gate issues, pressed a fast pace, opened up and was run down ---this one figured to not get the distance, however.

3) IRONICALLY, this horse looked very good on my Fatchart. His effort stood out; the type I typically bet back without caring about the others in the race. But I choose to overlook this for the reasons stated above.

So, in summation, I didn't learn a ****in thing cause I dwell in the rational not the irrational. This was a result that didn't make sense to me. Just one of those things that happens.

That's a good read Fat_man, this game is hard to figure at times...That I am sure every horseplayer here can agree on. Thanks.