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![]() If I may steal from Hooves for a moment...
How much does one consider wraps on a horse when handicapping? Case in point for me would be this past Thursday's 6th race at Tampa. It was a straight 6,250 claimer, 4 & up, going 6 furlongs. BARNEY SMITH (#4 horse) was being bet to heavy favoritism. He seemed, IMO, the most logical winner. He was in good formand and he was coming off 2 nice wins (the last at the same 6,250 level) and good 2nd place his 3rd race back. He figured to get the pace he needs to close into, so that just confirmed to me he would be very tough to deny. I decided to try and make money on him by keying him in a couple exactas. I played 2 tickets. 4/5,6 and then a little heavier on a 4/8. After I made my bets, there was still a couple minutes left before post. As I watched the post parade, I noticed that Barney Smith had both front and back wraps. I took it as a sign that maybe something had gone wrong and he might not be feeling as well as he had in his last few races. I decided to cancel my tickets. Turned out to be the right decision as Barney Smith ran 5th. What if you are handicapping this race as the middle leg or last leg of a pick3 and you don't have the luxury of seeing him in a post parade before placing your bet? On paper and on form, he could have been a solid single...before seeing that he had back wraps. Then he becomes a play against, IMO. Last edited by GPK : 01-27-2008 at 06:58 AM. |