12/12: AQU - $206,0000 Carryover

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But, to be fair, let's take a look at the other participants in Missile Motor's Grade 1 type performance.....Fleet Valid finished second and earned an 88. His previous six figures were 81, 101, 75, 102, 80 and 108. Introspect, who finished third, got an 87. His previous figs were 75 ( off a layoff ), 84, 88, 83, 92, 88 and 87. He's a Pioneer ( 4th ) got an 81. His prior efforts earned 85, 93, 91, 68, 101 and 93. That Magic Moment was 5th and earned an 80. His prior numbers were 71, 85, 70, 67 and 81. Daddy Joe got a 66 for his 6th place finish. His prior numbers were 98, 78, 82 and 79. The Student, who was 7th, got a 64. His prior efforts earned 86, 90, 91, 87 and 93. And Sinkwich finished 8th and last and earned a 61. His prior numbers were 53, 88, 67, 83, 90, 88 and 88.

I just took a look at the race and have a few comments/questions for you.

I see where Fleet Valid's number ranges from 75 to 108. And he's run over 100 in half of his previous six figures. Is this type of range typical? (Doesn't appear so, given the ranges of the other horses in the race.) If I were doing numbers, I would probably think that looking at this horse's performance would be the best way to approach the winner's number, as FV is the only one that's run close to the winner's number in the past. But, I don't do numbers and I believe that the winner had an advantage that probably goes a long way towards explaining his number.

I didn't take a look at the running style of the other horses in the race but it appears as if Fleet Valid likes the front. He got slammed coming out of the gate in this race, however, and, then, clearly didn't like the dirt being kicked in his face on the backstretch. So much so, that the jock had to swing him outside horses. Then, he was in tight early stretch, and had to wait a bit for room.

Now, the interesting question is not whether FV is able to run with the winner in the lane (his previous peak was 108, after all --for what it's worth) but, rather, how differently the race is run because FV does not get a good start. Assuming there's a speed duel between the two, the winner probably doesn't run 111.