Show Parlay

[Dunbar]

Final stats for the 20 rounds:

Parlays
Just 1 parlay was completed, bringing home $1182. With 20 x $100 invested, the net loss on trying to parlay 10 winning show bets was $818, or -41%. Along the way, jman's virtual bankroll went down as low as -$1600.

Flat-betting
By the time the 20th Round ended, 119 horses were picked. A flat bet on those 119 horses would have yielded a loss of -0.4%. For $100 bets the loss would have been $45. A dart-thrower would have had a loss of more like $1900.

Along the way, $100 flat bets reached a high point of +$110 and a low point of -$385.

Additional Notes
Parlaying the show bets adds suspense but also adds a lot of risk. While the parlay result dipped down to -$1600 at one point, the flat bets were never more than $385 behind. In the end, parlaying resulted in 18 times as big a loss as flat-betting ($818 vs $45), even though the flat-bettor would have risked almost 6 times as much money ($2000 vs $11,900).

In the face of general negativity towards show bets, jman's results are remarkably good. I've got to catch a plane in a few hours, but at some point I'd like to write some more about the statistical significance of jman's results.

Nice job with the record-keeping, too, jman. It's tough to keep on top of the stats during a losing streak, but you never waivered from the original plan.

--Dunbar