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Old 06-27-2007, 09:40 AM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default Re Log Jam

I pulled your PP's for Friday. Allow me to be blunt.

After clearing the NW2 in early Mar. you were beaten 9 by Again and Again (now hurt) and Wing Man. Both are pretty good horses who themselves might have a hard time w/NW1 horses at this tme of year. I assume that Log Jam had no real excuse. he "ran his race" but wasn't good enough. If he couldn't be cometitive with NW1 horses in March, he wont be in July when things are tougher.
After taking April off you returned in the Kingston H on grass. Log Jam has not shown any real love for turf and horses like Dave and Golden Commander and Papa Da are pretty much established commodities. Any way you look at things, that race was tough.

If you go to NJ you have to run in the (rare) NW3x and THAT is also very tough. Check out the Beyer pars for that level at Monmouth. Instead you head to F'lakes where you meet the (once very promising) Rises the Phoenix. That one wins by 8 while you run a reasonably good second with a BSF in the high 70's. Assuming that with a 4l advantage over the 3rd horse that Log Jam "could" have gone a bit faster but didn't need to, he could have earned an 80. An 80 is not going to win a NW3x at Monmouth or a NW1x at Belmont.

The racing is far more competitive in the summer months and horses that flourish in allowance conditions in January may find the "same level" a bit deep in July. It looks like the idea is to run him where he fits. The purses are smaller but once the winter rolls around you may find yourself back in NY running for more $$$.
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