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#14
02-15-2007, 12:58 AM
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IMO, the single biggest factor(s) in handicapping the Derby winner is 1)find the key prep, 2) determine who was the best horse in that race, adjusting for pace, ground loss and/or bias.
Many times it isn't the winner (Monarchos in the Wood, Real Quiet in the SA Derby, Silver Charm in the SA Derby, Unbridled in the Blue Grass, possibly Giacomo in the SA Derby that speed ran 1-2-3 around the track) of that race. 
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