6/29: Churchill Downs ($1.4MM Derby City 6 C/O Force Out)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ CLOSING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Almost all firsters and murky ones at that..

Best Value: #5 Seal Bay 6-1 10th
Next Best: #9 I Did I Did 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Alpyland 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Exonerate 7-2 4th


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Niki Nine Doors 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Satin Blue 5-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Foxxy Cleopatra 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Ervadean 15-1 8th


$3 Turf P3 Grid:

5: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x4x3 = 24 x $3 = $72


6th: Bashford Manor, 2yo, 6f (.20 Must Pay Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Saul Elliott 4-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Romeo 9-2 WON ($18.70)
Next Best: #1 Spice Runner 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Comport 3-1 2nd


7th: Debutante, 2yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Light Won Up 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Color Comin' In 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mine Strike 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Essential Coffee 3-1 7th


8th: Hanshin Cup, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Saudi Crown 9-5 7th
Best Value: #5 Tumbarumba 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Banishing 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Cagliostro 10-1 5th


P5 Grid:

4: 5-9 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
5: 2-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), 5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-5 in 6th)


P4 Grid:

5: 2-9-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), 5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9


9th: Anchorage, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Duvet Day 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Pin Up Betty 8-5 WON ($3.78)
Exotics Use: #5 Long Ago 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Charlene's Dream 3-1 5th


10th: Maxfield, 3yo, 7f (DD, Hi-5)

Yikes..

Most Likely: #8 Flood Zone 4-1 -
Best Value: #6 Smoken Wicked 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Verifire 5-1 WON ($7.18)
Exotics Use: #13 Furio 8-1 -


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T (Must Pay Hi-5)

Best Value: #12 GRAYLEIGH 20-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Good Game 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Twolatebabydoll 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Straight Forward 10-1 -
Hi-5 Play: #7 Merry Madison 5-1 -


.20 Must Pay Derby City P6 Grid:

6: 1-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-7-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x1x2x3x5 = 360 x .20 = $72


P5 Grid:

7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-12 (A), 2-10 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-7 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-5-12 (A), 4-7-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x2x3x3 = 18 x .50 = $9


Let's get lucky!
Steve