5/2-3: Churchill Downs ~ 151st Kentucky Derby Day

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ OAKS DAY


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Naked Eye 20-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Shred the Gnar 5-2 WON ($3.76)
Exotics Use: #4 Chasten 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Sierra November SCR


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Saucier 6-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Joyous Song 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Endorse SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Contorted 10-1 6th


3rd: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Vivaldi 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Profound 6-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Some Performance 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Spill the Wine 20-1 10th


4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Wondrous 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Stable Currency 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Mindy's Union 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Foie Gras 6-1 2nd


5th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Nitrogen 8-5 WON ($3.94)
Best Value: #8 Will Then 9-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Vixen 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Lush Lips 7-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

1: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
3: 6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), 8 (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-7 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-3 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)
3: 6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-8 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (2-7 in 5th)


6th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Fierceness 6-5 WON ($3.88)
Best Value: #3 Hall of Fame 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Locked 2-1 4th


7th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (2-day/$1 G1 P6, P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Randomized 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Raging Sea 9-2 WON ($10.08)
Exotics Use: #2 Thorpedo Anna 2-5 7th
Super Add: #3 Literate 30-1 6th


P5 Grid:

3: 6-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x2x1x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (2 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

4: 2-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
5: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 2x2x1x3 = 12 x .50 = $6


8th: Modesty (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Saffron Moon 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 She Feels Pretty 6-5 WON ($3.58)
Exotics Use: #2 Gimme a Nother 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Segesta 9-2 4th


9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Mendela 15-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Look Forward 12-1 WON ($17.04)
Exotics Use: #9 Bourbon Memory 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Kimchi Cat 15-1 11th


P5 Grid:

5: 5-8 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-11 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x1x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (6-9 in 9th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (3/5-4-4-1/4/7-11) Paid $252.55 (A-A-A-A-A)


10th: Unbridled Sydney (G3), F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Queen Maxima 2-1 WON ($6.28)
Next Best: #4 Ag Bullet 8-5 7th
Best Value: #6 Bling 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Epona's Hope 6-1 3rd


11th: 151st Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 La Cara 6-1 9th
Next Best: #11 Good Cheer 6-5 WON ($4.78)
Best Value: #13 Bless the Broken 30-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Fondly 20-1 11th
Super Add: #2 Simply Joking 10-1 13th


$100 Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid:

FRI 11: 7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 11: 1-3-4-7-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAT 12: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x6x1 = 12 x $8 = $96


$100 Oaks/Derby DBL Grid:

FRI 11: 7-11 (A), - (B), 2-3-6-14 (C)
SAT 12: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x1 = 2 x $40 = $80
Backup (C-A): 4x1 = 4 x $5 = $20


P5 Grid:

7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
8: 2-3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
10: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11 (A), 2-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x4x2x2x2 = 64 x .50 = $32
Backup (AAAC): 1x4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (2 in 7th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (4/1,4,7/11/9/8,11) Paid $427.95 (A-A-A-A-A)


P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
10: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11 (A), 2-13 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (AAAC): 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (3-6 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1,4,7/11/9/8,11) Paid $76.29 (A-A-A-A)


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Resilience 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Over and Ollie SCR
Next Best: #5 Moonlight 6-1 WON ($11.42)
Exotics Use: #6 Into Pleasure 9-2 8th


13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 La Neige 10-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Cue the Duckboats 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Tetiaroa 8-1 WON ($7.66)
Super Add: #10 Chaching Chaching 7-2 9th


P5 Grid:

9: 7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11 (A), 13 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
12: 3-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
13: 7-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (2-3-6 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (11/9/8,11/5/8) Paid $1,385.33


P4 Grid:

10: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 7-11 (A), 2-13 (B), 3-4-6-14 (C)
12: 3-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
13: 7-8-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAA): 2x4x2x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (3-4-6-14 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/8,11/5/8) Paid $107.23


Let's get lucky!
Steve