8/20: Saratoga (Alabama Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Fioki's Flight 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sebaray 7-2 WON ($13.60)
Best Value: #3 Billy Price 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Pistol Or Shotgun 5-1 7th


2nd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Holiday Jazz 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Spooky Ranch 3-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #6 U Can't Handle This 3-1 5th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Favorite Outlaw 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Ryan's Cat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Peaceful Waters 9-5 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Risk Profile 6-1 3rd


4th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Road to Remember 5-1 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #5 Shinful 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 My Cara Mia Mine 3-1 4th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Coach Petro 3-1 DH-3rd
Next Best: #6 Activist Investing 5-2 DH-3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Conversing 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Rarified Flair 4-1 WON ($11.20)


P5 Grid:

1: 2-4 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
2: 1-4 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
3: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 1-5 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backups: $16 (1-3 in 3rd/A-A-C-A-A); $16 (2-5 in 5th/A-A-A-A-C)


P4 Grid:

2: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-4 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
4: 1-5 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $12 (2-5 in 5th/A-A-A-C)


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Repole entry 1-1 WON ($3.70)/9th
Next Best: #6 Dangerous Edge 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Rhymes Like Dimes 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Blitz to Win 6-1 5th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Word has been out for weeks that Echo Again is a terror. Expect him to bet heavily..

Most Likely: #5 Echo Again 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #2 Good News Rocket 8-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Expected Value 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Bat Flip 6-1 4th


8th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 With the Moonlight 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Eminent Victor 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Haughty 9-2 WON ($13.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Dolce Zel 6-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 1-5 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-3 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x1x2 = 16 x $3 = $48
All A's: 2x2x1x1x2 = 8 x $3 = $24
Backups: $8 (2-5 in 5th/A-C-A-A-A); $12 (4-5-6 in 8th/A-A-A-A-C)


P4 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
6: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-3 (A), 4-5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x1x5 = 10 x $2.50 = $25
All A's: 2x1x1x2 = 4 x $5 = $20
Backups: $4 (2-5 in 5th/C-A-A-A)


9th: Smart N Fancy, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Change of Control 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Illegal Smile 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Miss J McKay 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Too Sexy 5-1 7th


10th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD)

Case can be made that Nest is due for a regression, but as mentioned yesterday on ATR, hard to argue that she was born for this particular opportunity at the classic distance..

Most Likely: #4 Nest 1-2 WON ($2.70)
Next Best: #3 Gerrymander 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Secret Oath 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Goddess of Fire 20-1 3rd


11th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 8.5f-Inner

Trying Sonic Speed again after adventurous trip opening week..

Best Value: #10 Sonic Speed 15-1 4th
Next Best: 7 Aviano 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Wicked Fast 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 K P All Systems Go 20-1 5th


P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6-7 (A), 3-4-5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
11: 4-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x7x2x3 = $84 ($42 for .50)
All A's: 1x2x3x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup (A-A-A-C-A): 1x2x3x1x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-6-7 (A), 3-4-5-8 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
11: 4-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x7x2x3 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A's: 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (A-A-C-A): 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9



MONMOUTH


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Phillip Iselin (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Riden With Biden 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Highly Motivated 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Forza Di Oro 8-5 6th



DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bellabel 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Spendarella 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #3 Island of Love 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Cairo Memories 3-1 3rd


Good luck!
Steve