Finally Blemont Week . . . whadaya think?

[JolyB]

Entries were drawn this morning and the linemaker made Rich Strike the third choice at 7-2, behind We the People at 2-1 and Mo Donegal at 5-2.

If those are the post time odds, I don't think that Rich is a good bet. Everything seemed to go his way in the Derby and his win was impressive. However, it would be asking a lot for the Belmont to fit his running style so perfectly as well. The Belmont pace is usually much slower as jockeys are very conscious of the distance and try to save a lot for the finish. Much of Rich's Derby win was attributable to the very fast pace that cooked much of his competition.

Another thing that worries me about Rich's prospects - Sonny Leon gave him a superb ride in the Derby and found every hole at just the right time. I don't think that he is familiar with Belmont, and jockeys who aren't familiar with the big sandy can get lost on those wide, sweeping turns. If a jockey starts his run at the beginning of the final turn at Belmont, he could be completely out of gas by the 1/16th pole due to the greater distance. I would have expected Leon to be riding some races at Belmont in the days preceding this Saturday.

Finally, I was a little surprised that the ML odds on Nest weren't a bit lower. I had expected something more like 6-1 for a number of reasons, including that Todd has shown with Rags to Riches that he is very skilled at judging whether he has a filly capable of getting 1 1/2 miles and then training her to do just that.