Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm one of the two that has Essential Quality. The only other one I can see is Rock Your World but I think it's really Essential Quality's race to lose. Having said that, even he didn't impress me last out.

I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).