Anothertwistafate

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

This is a good opportunity for a discussion I hope. I get that he won, but long term is that the kind of horse you want to be betting at 6/5?

There might be instances where a 6/5 horse might seem like value based on what he’s running against....but I’m curious what people think. Is 6/5 off a 16 month layoff value?

Off topic....I’m not sure who runs Emerald but I can’t help think that they would’ve handled much more on the race if it wasn’t run at 11:30 on the east coast on a Thursday night.

You may be right. That may be why I was so terrible at my "best bets" for Saratoga. Too many horses at short odds with question marks. In this case, I just thought Anothertwistafate really stood out from this field and would win even with an 80% effort. And the workouts looked good so I wasn't worried about the layoff.

I didn't end up betting him at 6/5 but (redboard alert) did bet a double the race before - 5,7 / 4 - which ended up paying $12.80 for $1. If I had whiffed on the first half of the double, I may have taken the 6/5 odds to try to get my money back(which longterm, is probably a terrible way to play. I used to have some really bad days at the track when I tried to do stuff like this.)