9/7: Saratoga ~ Closing Day (Must Pay Empire 6)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA ~ CLOSING DAY


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Julie Bird 5-2 8th
Best Value: #2 Lovestruck 10-1 WON ($21.80)
Next Best: #9 Army Wife 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Freedomofthepress 5-1 2nd


8th: Lure-R, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Breaking the Rules 3-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Devamani 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Ballagh Rocks 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Olympico 4-1 5th


9th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Last juvy boys diploma grab and has the look of an important group..

Most Likely: #9 Savoy 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Speaker's Corner 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Team Merchants 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Outlier 6-1 7th


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Deep, contentious group with karma moves including turnbacks (3-5-7), equipment changes (3-5-9) and layoff returnees (5-7-9)..

Most Likely: #1 Ima Pharoah 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Tikhvin Slew 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cucina 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Dudley Square 12-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

7: 2-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-4-5 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
9: 3-9 (A), - (B), 4-6-7-8 (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 2-7-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x4x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-8-9 with 1-4-5 with 4-6-7-8 with 1-3)


11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Tricky read with seemingly moderate pace scenario..

Best Value: #2 Quarterback Dak 9-2 9th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Kringle 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Alley Oop Johnny 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Bail Out 15-1 4th


12th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-Inner (P3, DD)

Another classy, well matched set, but note that Basquiat (American Pharoah son out of turf stakes placed dam) is 8-1 and gets move to turf which should suit. Art aficionados may find a Basquiat-Gauguin exacta box irresistible..

Best Value: #5 Basquiat 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Succeedandsurpass 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Lonesome Fugitive 2-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Gauguin 4-1 2nd


13th: Hopeful (G1), 2yo, 7f (DD)

Excellent roundup for this season-ending juvenile standard with Brown/Asmussen/Pletcher trio likely to put on a show..

Most Likely: #5 Reinvestment Risk 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mutasaabeq 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Jackie's Warrior 7-5 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #7 Ambersand 20-1 4th


14th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-T

Droppers appear more likely than the career maiden types..

Best Value: #3 Vicarage 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #13 Seize the Hay 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Stare Decisis 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Sir Chubby 12-1 WON ($15.80)


Must Pay Empire P6 Grid:

9: 3-9
10: 1-2-3
11: 2-4-6-8-10
12: 3-5-8-9
13: 5
14: 2-3-13

All A's: 2x3x5x4x1x3 = 360 x .20 = $72


P5 Grid:

10: 1-3 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
11: 2-6 (A), 3-4-7-8-10 (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 5 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
14: 2-3-13 (A), - (B), 5-8-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x7x3x1x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 3x2x3x1x3 ($27) + 2x2x3x2x3 ($36) + 2x2x3x1x3 ($18) = $81


P4 Grid:

11: 2-4-6-8 (A), 3-7-10 (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 5 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
14: 2-3-13 (A), 5-8-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x3x1x6 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 4x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: 4x3x2x3 ($36)


Good luck!
Steve