4/7: AQU ($165k C/O), KEE (Stakes P5), SA ($106k C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 123rd Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

$165k 2-day C/O starts here..

Understand those wanting to try to beat Midnight Disguise, but she's the only one here that's proven around 2 turns and it came in stakes company at that..

Most Likely: #3 Midnight Disguise 8-5 4th
Best Value: #6 My Miss Lilly 5-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #5 Sara Street 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Smokinpaddylassie 3-1 5th


7th: 106th Excelsior (G3), 4+, 9f (NYRA Bets P5, P3, DD)

Curious lineup and all I know for sure is that I want the horses that have won at the trip and over the strip..

Most Likely: #3 Zanotti 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Wild About Deb 5-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Backsideofthemoon 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Control Group 2-1 5th


8th: 118th Carter H. (G1), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Fun group for this early season 7f G1, with some solid types mixing it up with potentially high quality ouchy sprinters like Army Mule. Thought #2 hole might be an issue for Army Mule, but note that there aren't any pace players lined up near him and Joe Bravo should be able to gain whatever position he wants..

Most Likely: #2 Army Mule 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #4 Do Share 5-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Awesome Slew 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Skyler's Scramjet 3-1 4th


9th: 58th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Going into this with a low confidence level..

Most Likely: #4 National Flag 7-5 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #6 Aveenu Malcainu 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Engage 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Justaholic 8-1 7th


10th: 94th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Not sure why there's an effort to discount chances of Enticed, or for that matter, why there's sentiment that Restoring Hope has just been tossed in here pall mall. Restoring Hope was excluded from Sunland try on earnings and his drill for this earned the rare California 'breeze' designation as stressed by Jay Privman Friday. Suppose Old Time Revival has wire potential and Dale Romans lauded King Zachary on ATR this week, but anything other than top pair would surprise me..

Most Likely: #5 Enticed 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #8 Restoring Hope 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Old Time Revival 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 King Zachary 20-1 6th


11th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf

Most Likely: #5 Lucky Ramsey 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Nile Prince 10-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Strut N Stomp 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Adventist 12-1 9th


P6 Grid:

6: 3 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
7: 3 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-7 (C)
8: 2-4 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
9: 4 (A), 5-6 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
11: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x2x3x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 1x1x2x1x2x3 = 12 x $2 = $24


NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

7: 3-4 (A), 1-2-7 (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 2-4 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C)
9: 4-6 (A), 5 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
11: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x2x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

8: 2-4-11 (A), 3-5-9-10 (B), - (C)
9: 4-6 (A), 5 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 5-8 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
11: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x3x2x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: 32nd Commonwealth (G3), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Westwood may be loping along on the lead here..

Best Value: #3 Westwood 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Limousine Liberal 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Conquest Windycity 4-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Behavioral Bias 6-1 4th


7th: 22nd Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Stay tuned. Turf course condition obviously an unknown right now..

Best Value: #5 Bucchero 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #13 Disco Partner 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Big Handsome 6-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Commute 5-1 4th


8th: 17th Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Super edition and the California speed of American Girl looms large..

Most Likely: #11 American Girl 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Salty 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Lewis Bay 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Miss Sunset 9-2 2nd


9th: 81st Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Like Analyze It Friday, the opportunity to lean on Monomoy Girl in P5/P4 a big help..

Most Likely: #1 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #3 Patrona Margarita 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Eskimo Kisses 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tyfosha 15-1 7th


10th: 94th Blue Grass (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Like Enticed in New York, Good Magic the clear horse to beat and feels exceedingly likely after better than appeared seasonal debut. Spread far and wide in the exotics..

Most Likely: #11 Good Magic 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Blended Citizen 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Free Drop Billy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Tiz Mischief 30-1 7th


P5 Grid:

6: 3-5-6 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
7: 5-9-13 (A), 2-10 (B), 7-8 (C)
8: 2-3-8-11 (A), 4-10-12 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 2-3-7 (C)
10: 11 (A), - (B), 2-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x7x1x1 = 175 x .50 = $87.50
All A's: 3x3x4x1x1 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 5-9-13 (A), 2-7-8-10 (B), - (C)
8: 2-3-8-11 (A), 4-5-10-12 (B), - (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 2-3-7 (C)
10: 11 (A), - (B), 2-7-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 7x8x1x1 = $56 ($28 for .50)
All A's: 3x4x1x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 38th Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Bolt d'Oro v. Justify later the marquis event, but Paved v. Ms Bad Behavior an excellent matchup in its' own right between emergent McCarthy & Baltas fillies..

Most Likely: #4 Paved 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Ms Bad Behavior 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Fatale Bere 6-1 WON ($17.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Pulpit Rider 9-2 4th


6th: 7th Echo Eddie-Cal, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Another excellent head to head with Take the 101 and Heck Yeah..

Most Likely: #4 Take the One O One 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Heck Yeah 7-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #6 Fire When Ready 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Rewired 12-1 7th


7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$106k P6 C/O starts here..

Treacherous start to the P6 carryover with this jumbled turf mile. Not sure the C/O is approachable for small money..

Best Value: #4 Tartini 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Mesut 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Accountability 8-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #10 Malibu Music 12-1 9th


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #6 Swayze 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Sigur Ros 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Sheer Flattery 6-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Conqueror 7-2 WON ($9.80)


9th: 81st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Have gone back and forth between the established Ruis colt and emerging Baffert upstart. Raw talent will have to overcome the experience factor if Justify is to beat Bolt, but Mike Smith does have a potential tactical edge in his favor. Like everyone else, really looking forward to this showdown..

Most Likely: #6 Justify 4-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #3 Bolt d'Oro 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Instilled Regard 5-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Jimmy Chila 30-1 7th


10th: 20th Royal Heroine (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tricky read. Top 3 appear necessary to get through leg in multis..

Most Likely: #7 Madame Stripes 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Thundering Sky 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Enola Gray 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Sophie P 12-1 6th


11th: 79th Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Midnight Bisou may be prove special..

Most Likely: #3 Midnight Bisou 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Finess Bere 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Spectator 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Thirteen Squared 9-2 3rd


12th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (DD, Hi-5)

Tough, deep finale to sequences..

Most Likely: #10 Queen Blossom 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Arch of Troy 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Pantsonfire 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #7 The Tulip 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Laseen 3-1 Refused


P6 Grid:

7: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)
8: 6-8 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-5-7 (C)
9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
11: 3 (A), - (B), 5-7-9 (C)
12: 10 (A), 2-9 (B), 1-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x3x1x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A's: 2x2x2x2x1x1 = 16 x $2 = $32


P5 Grid:

8: 1-6-8 (A), 2-3 (B), 5-7-10 (C)
9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 6 (B), 2-3-9 (C)
11: 3 (A), - (B), 5-7-9 (C)
12: 2-9-10 (A), 1-7 (B), 5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x3x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-9 (C)
11: 3 (A), 5-7 (B), 2-8-9 (C)
12: 1-2-7-9-10 (A), - (B), 5-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x1x5 = $30 x .50 = $15

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/3/3/2,3,8) Paid $38.90 (A-C-A-A)


Good luck!
Steve